Category: Contingent Workforce Management

Australia’s economy added 14,700 jobs in September. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in September as labour participation slightly decreased. The Bureau of Statistics reports that full-time employment increased by approximately 26,200 and part-time employment decreased by nearly 11,400.

Numbers

14,700: The Australian economy added 14,700 jobs in September.

5.2%: The Australian unemployment rate fell to 5.2%.

66.1%: Labour force participation fell to 66.1%.

0: The Business Confidence Index fell to 0 in the latest NAB release.

Upside

The Australian economy added 14,700 jobs in September. Full-time employment increased by approximately 26,200 while part-time employment decreased by nearly 11,400. This is a positive sign because full-time work adds more wealth to the economy than part-time employment. The unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, the first decrease in seven months.   

In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increases in employment were recorded in Queensland which was up 25,300 and Victoria which increased by 8,600. Since September 2018, full-time employment increased by 191,700, while part-time employment increased by 119,900.

Downside

While the report was generally viewed as positive, the labour market in September was far from ideal. The unemployment rate is much higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) aspirational goal of 4.5%. 

Reuters reported that RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle cautioned that a downturn in home building had been a “larger drag on the economy and jobs than first expected and was set to get worse before it got better.”

Additional caution was expressed by Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, who said, “The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate dipped…But employment surveys point to jobs growth slowing and we expect unemployment to reach 5.5% by early next year.”

The largest job loss was in New South Wales which lost 23,000 positions pushing the unemployment rate up 0.2 percentage points up to 4.5%. And while the unemployment rate fell for the nation as a whole, the jobless rate remains stubbornly high in a number of states: In September the unemployment rate in Western Australia was 5.7%; in Tasmania it was 6.2%; in South Australia it was 6.3%. West Australia had the highest jobless rate with 6.5%, a full 1.3 percentage points higher than the nation as a whole.

Negative Forecasts – How Should Employers React?

The International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook predicts slowing growth in Australia.

In the latest release, the IMF predicts just 1.7% growth in 2019, which is a full percentage point lower than 2018.

At the same time, the National Australia Bank reports that anxiety around the cost of living is increasing for Australians. In September’s Consumer Anxiety Survey, anxiety rose 2.3 points to 64.7.

An article in The Guardian entitled “Did you enjoy the good times? Because the economic outlook for Australia has tanked” paints a bleak picture of the future of the nation’s economy. It points out that in the 12 months leading up to June 2019, Australia’s GDP grew at its slowest rate since 2001.

However, businesses should not overact to the spate of negative economic forecasts.  Australian employers that have the experience and expertise to effectively engage and retain their current workforce will have the competitive advantage in an uncertain talent market in which workers may leave to pursue higher wages.  Organizations that have the best tools for workforce planning and recruitment which support sustainable growth can succeed regardless of the strength of the future economic environment. 

The October Labour Market Report released by the Office for National Statistics, which includes the quarter covering June through August 2019, reported that 56,000 jobs were lost as the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Nominal wages showed an annual increase of 3.8%.

Notable figures from the September report include:

• The UK employment rate fell to 75.9%, higher than a year earlier (75.6%) but 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
• The number of job vacancies fell to 813,000, the lowest level since autumn 2017.
• Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees was 3.8% for both total pay (including bonuses) and regular pay (excluding bonuses).

Job Losses and Rising Unemployment

The number of those working in the three months ending in August unexpectedly decreased by 56,000. The decline was driven by those employed part-time and self-employed workers, young people and women. The Office for National Statistics noted that while there were changes in the employment numbers for both men and women, “The number of women entering employment has been a strong contributing factor to the current high employment levels, so a fall in their number in employment has had a larger impact on the current level of employment.”

The number of people who are out of work rose by 22,000 to slightly more than 1.31 million. The decrease in jobs combined with a lack of increased participation drove the unemployment rate up to 3.9%.

The level of those who are economically inactive also rose. Inactivity measures people without a job but who are not classified as unemployed because they have not been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks. The inactivity rate reported was 21%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but 0.1% higher than the last quarter.

The Looming Brexit Deadline…Again

For the third time this year, UK businesses have had to consider their recruitment plans while facing an approaching date for leaving the European Union. And, even though Parliament has voted to constrain the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, there is still no agreement in place with a little over two weeks to go until the October 31 deadline. The job losses and the increased unemployment rate are being blamed on the lack of clarity in the nation’s immediate economic future combined with an extended tight labour market, as Tej Parikh, chief economist at the Institute of Directors, an employer’s group, noted:

“Challenging economic conditions are starting to take the shine off the UK’s job boom. Business leaders’ long-lasting drive to expand their workforce has put the labour market in a strong position. However, firms are now increasingly coming up against uncertainty and the shrinking supply of available talent.”

Even with the uncertainties that would come in the event of a “no deal Brexit,” less than one third of larger UK firms reported that they are planning to reduce their recruitment plans, while a small percentage plan to increase them, according to a recent survey by the British Chambers of Commerce:

“22% of businesses surveyed said they would revise recruitment plans down in the event of no-deal, while 3% would revise up. 73% of respondents did not state that they would revise investment plans.

Larger businesses surveyed (firms with more than 50 employees) were more likely to report that they will revise investment (33%) and recruitment (31%) plans downwards in a ‘no deal’ scenario. 5% of surveyed businesses reported they would revise investment and recruitment upwards, respectively.”

Keep Calm and Consider the Context

While the data released today could be interpreted as the beginning of the end of an expanding labour market, it is far too early to make this prediction. Consider two of the headline factors of today’s report: the employment rate and number of job vacancies. The employment rate fell from last month’s report but this rate of 76.1% was tied for the highest rate on record since records began in 1971. Job openings are slowly decreasing, but the current level of 813,000 still demonstrates robust demand for talent. Unemployment remains near historic lows. And, while news about job losses may be unfamiliar and troubling, employers should not drastically alter their recruitment plans on the basis of a single labour market report.

Statistics Canada reported that the nation’s unemployment fell to 5.5%. In September, 53,700 jobs were created. Average weekly wages increased 3.8% over the last year. There were strong job gains in the healthcare and social assistance sectors. The number of full-time jobs increased by 70,000, while part-time jobs fell by 16,300.

The Numbers

53,700: The economy gained 53,700 jobs in September.
5.5%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.5%.
3.8%: Weekly wages increased 3.8% over the last year.

The Good

Statistics Canada reported that the addition of nearly 54,000 jobs lowered the nation’s unemployment rate to 5.5%. The job gains were due entirely to full-time work. 70,000 new full-time jobs were added, offset by a decrease of 16,300 part-time positions. In the third quarter, employment grew by 111,000, or 0.6%. On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 456,000, or 2.4%.

The sectors with the largest increases included healthcare and social assistance, which added 30,000 jobs, and accomodations and food services, which increased by 23,300 jobs. The annual average weekly wage increase of 3.8% is well ahead of the rate of inflation, while the annual average hourly wage increase was even higher at 4.3%.

The Bad

Many of the new jobs were concentrated in Ontario, which gained 41,100 new positions, lowering the province’s unemployment rate to 5.3%  With the exception of a slight increase in Nova Scotia the rest of Canada did not experience any notable job growth. 33,000 new jobs were created in the public sector, which is 61% of the total jobs added in September. This reveals a potential weak spot, at least temporarily, in the expansion of private business.

The number of self-employed workers rose by 42,000 in September, continuing an upward trend that began earlier this year. Over the last year, self-employment gains totalled 106,000 (3.7%). The growth in self-employment has two implications that can negatively impact employers and the economy as a whole. First, as more people become self-employed, there are fewer Canadians in the available talent pool for employers to hire, thereby tightening the job market. And, second, the self-employed tend to either not hire others, contract labor on an as-needed basis or employ very few people. For these reasons, the self-employed have a limited impact on job growth.

The Unknown

While much of the economic conditions in Canada appear to be strong, Canadians are growing increasingly anxious about their financial situation. An Ipsos poll conducted for Global News showed that 68% of Canadians feel like they can’t get ahead and 82% say they feel things are becoming less affordable. This poll shows Canadians are divided 50-50 on whether they are better off now than in 2015.

Factors that contribute to the anxiety of many Canadians include that fact the unemployment is still elevated in some provinces. According to Statistics Canada’s September data, in Alberta the unemployment rate stood at 6.6%, in Nova Scotia it was 7.2%, in New Brunswick 8.3% and in Prince Edward Island it was 8.8%.

While wages are increasing, costs of some services essential to millions of Canadians, such as childcare, are increasing faster than the rate of inflation. Canadian employers have no clear way to forecast how their employees will act on their feelings of economic uncertainty. Will some quit to find new work at higher wages? Will others be more likely to remain due to their desire for security and stability? Effective employee engagement and strong communication at every level in an organization are critical components to effectively manage, and retain, valuable talent during this time of perceived economic instability.

The Labor Department released its September Jobs Report which shows that U.S. employers added 136,000 jobs in September, below analyst expectations. The unemployment rate fell to  3.5%, a level not seen since December 1969. Year-over-year wage growth slowed to 2.9%. U.S. employers have added to payrolls for 108 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record.

The Numbers

136,000: The economy added 136,000 jobs in September.

3.5%: The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

2.9%: Average hourly wages increased at a rate of 2.9% over the last year.

The Good

The 136,000 new jobs that were added to the nation’s economy kept the labor market on a growth trajectory which has continued for nine years. The headline news was that the unemployment rate plunged to 3.5%, its lowest level in nearly 50 years, a time before the living memory of most of the U.S. workforce.

Average annual wage gains were at 2.9%, and while decreasing from recent months, is still well ahead of inflation. A broad measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those too discouraged to look for work, plus Americans stuck in part-time jobs, but who want to work full-time, fell to 6.9% in September from 7.2% in August.

In September, the healthcare sector gained 39,000 jobs, which is in line with the robust increases seen in the last 12 months. Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September, adding 34,000 positions. The transportation and warehousing sector also expanded by 15,700 payrolls, shrugging off any major impact by the slow-down in manufacturing. And, at the end of the summer holiday season, jobs in leasure and hospitality increased by 21,000.

The Bad

The rate of job growth continues to slow. Employers have added an average of 161,000 jobs per month through September of 2019. That number is down from average growth of 190,000 jobs per month in the eight years since employment started to pick up after the last recession. The retail sector continued to hemorage jobs, with a loss of 11,400 jobs last month. Since reaching its peak level in January 2017, the retail trade has lost 197,000 positions. 

Manufacturing lost 2,000 jobs in September. Last spring, manufacturers were adding as many as 25,000 jobs a month. In recent months, the average has been a few thousand. There is broad consensus that increased tariffs and the continued trade wars are taking a toll on this sector with few expecting this negative trend to change anytime soon. 

The share of Americans working or searching for work last month held steady at 63.2%. The stagnation in the size of the nation’s workforce combined with a low unemployment rate not seen in nearly half a century could be a troubling sign for employers who are confronted with a shrinking pool of available talent.

The Unknown

While the unemployment rate has plunged, average annual year-over-year wage gains actually decreased in September which has left many economists perplexed. As the Washington Post reports:

“Nick Bunker, an economist at the jobs site Indeed, said that the lower unemployment rate was a good sign but that other economic indicators complicated the picture. Of particular note, he said, was that wage growth slowed from 3.2% to 2.9% in September.”

“You would expect wage growth to be much stronger given this unemployment rate,” he said. Economists have puzzled over why wage growth has remained modest since the recession despite the falling jobless rate.”

Douglas Kruse, an economist at Rutgers University, is cited in the same article and asserted that this situation cannot continue for long:

 “There’s just been a large pool of people out there who are available to be employed without raising wages, but that just can’t keep going on,” Kruse said. “We’re hitting the point where we’re going to have to see wage growth, or employers aren’t going to find workers they need.”

How will employers know whether to increase wages to attract talent and, if so, how much should they be increased? Are comprehensive salary reviews needed to be adjusted with a focus on retention? How do factors such as location and years of experience impact the decision to raise wage levels? Those enterprises that have the expertise to knowledgably answers these and other related questions will have the competitive edge in a potentially  tightening job market in the months to come.

Australia’s economy added 34,700 jobs in August. The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% as labour participation increased. The Bureau of Statistics reports that full-time employment decreased by close to 15,500 and part-time employment increased by approximately 50,200.

Numbers

34,700: The Australian economy added 34,700 jobs in August.

5.3%: The Australian unemployment rate rose to 5.3%.

66.2%: Labour force participation rose to 66.2%.

+1: The Business Confidence Index fell to +1 in the latest NAB release.

Upside

The Australian economy added 34,700 jobs in August, beating analyst expectations of just 15,000. While the unemployment rate increased, this was due in part to the growing number of Australians that are either working or looking for work. The labour force participation rose to 66.2%, a record high.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increases in employment were in Victoria, up 20,300 and New South Wales with an increase of 16,700. Since August 2018, full-time employment has increased by 186,700 persons, and part-time employment has increased by 124,000.

Downside

This year-long trend of full-time job growth outpacing part-time employment did not hold in August. Close to 15,500 full-time jobs were eliminated in August with this decrease offset by an increase of approximately 50,200 part-time positions. This growing participation rate boosted the unemployment number to a 12 month high. Unemployment rates spiked in South Australia, where it rose from 6.9% to 7.3%, and Tasmania, where it increased from 6% to 6.4%.

The underutilisation rate, which includes those who are both unemployed and underemployed (needing additional work) also rose to 13.8%. The number of available workers is growing faster than the number of jobs, especially full-time jobs. Much of the increase in the nation’s labour force is due to strong population growth figures fueled by immigration. The most recent quarterly ABS data shows Australia’s population grew by 389,000, or 1.6% year leading to March 2019, which includes a 250,000 rise in net overseas migration.

This weakness in the job market is bad news for those hoping to see wage increases in the near future as BIS Oxford economist Sean Langcake explained:

“While employment growth has been reasonably healthy over the past year, the demand for labour is being met with increased supply. This is working to keep a lid on wages growth.”

Job Growth in the Service Sector

In the last year, which sectors have driven the “reasonably healthy” growth? A recent article by Jason Murphy notes that Australia is transforming into a service economy. A service economy is one that runs primarily on services provided rather than on goods produced. This can be viewed as a net positive for the nation.

Since March 2013, Australia has added over one million jobs in household and business services while losing jobs in manufacturing and mining. Data from ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics), shows that while manufacturing jobs once paid as well as work at a bank or telecommunications work, this is no longer the case. Compared to manufacturing, there is much more money to be made in the service sector.

While taking a broad view of what constitutes a service job, Murphy argues that the growing service sector is good for the country, which has an aging population and is faced with global trade uncertainty:

“We have this old-fashioned idea that service jobs are burger-flipping, and yes, there’s entry-level jobs like that, but lots of service sector jobs are doctors and nurses, lawyers and consultants.

Those are good jobs in many ways. Safe, well-paid jobs that you can do until late in life. But they are also good because it is much harder for international trade to undermine them. Chinese manufacturing may have caused the demise of a lot of Australian factories, but Chinese hospitals don’t do much to affect Australian hospitals.”

The September Labour Market Report released by the Office for National Statistics, which includes the three months from May 2019 through July 2019, reported that 31,000 jobs were created as the unemployment rate fell slightly to 3.8%. Nominal wages showed an annual increase of 3.8%.

Notable figures from the September report include:

• The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1% and is tied for the highest rate on record since records began in 1971.
• The number of job vacancies fell to 812,000, the lowest level since the end of 2017.
• The annual wage increase including bonuses jumped to 4.0%. 

Modest Job Gains and Decreased Vacancies Point to Slowing Growth

Jobs continued to grow in the UK over the quarter, but the growth was at a tepid pace.  Since the report covering the same quarter last year, which showed only 3,000 job gains, 369,000 jobs have been added. At the same time, the number of job vacancies is dropping steadily.

John Philpott, the director of the Jobs Economist consultancy, noted that private-sector job creation was at a “near standstill.” Only 2,000 of the 31,000 jobs created over the quarter came from the private sector.

“These latest figures confirm recent signs of softening in the UK labour market. Recruitment appears to have weakened most noticeably in smaller private sector businesses, though it is unclear to what extent this reflects prolonged uncertainty over Brexit or a broader slowdown in the economy,” Philpott said.

While economic growth appears to be slowing in many developed economies, including the UK, there were numbers released in the report which point to Brexit’s impact.  Manufacturing is a sector that is among the most vulnerable to trade uncertainty and disruption. During the same quarter last year, manufacturing in the UK produced 23,000 new jobs and grew at an annual rate of 1.2%. This year, manufacturing shed 5,000 jobs during the quarter with a 0% annual growth rate.

Employers Postpone Hiring But for How Long?

A survey released by KPMG and The Recruitment and Employment Federation showed that the number of workers hired for permanent jobs through recruitment agencies decreased at the fastest pace in more than three years in August.

The survey showed that temporary hiring rose at its slowest pace in 75 months. Permanent placements fell for the sixth month in a row as employers postponed hiring. “Brexit uncertainty continues to take its toll on the jobs market,” James Stewart, vice chair at KPMG, said.

With a resolution to the Brexit crisis nowhere in sight, it is unclear how long employers will continue to be cautious about hiring. The UK economy has already withstood Brexit deadlines and job growth has continued. However, the October 31 deadline comes in the wake of a political crisis and the shutdown of Parliament. It remains to be seen how employers will respond to continued uncertainty or after some level of resolution takes place in the coming weeks.

It is Still a Job Seeker’s Market

With the backdrop of a shuttered Parliament and dire warnings about a recession resulting from a “no-deal Brexit,” the September report still showed a labour market that was growing, albeit slowly, with decades low unemployment and a record-high number of people working. The healthy wage increases are a result of a market with strong demand for talent. Even the level of job vacancies, while lower than in recent years, is by no means negligible.

While many employers appear to be scaling back hiring, they are doing so during a tight labour market. Given the potential for shifting market conditions, having a sound, flexible, recruitment and retention strategy for UK enterprises will be a key factor in their success in the uncertain months ahead.

Statistics Canada surveyed that the nation’s unemployment remained at 5.7%. In August, 81,000 jobs were created. Weekly annual wage increases were up 3.6%, a full percentage point lower than the previous month. Much of the increase in August was in part-time work.

The Numbers

+81,000: The Canadian economy added 81,000 jobs in August.

5.7%: The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.7%.

3.6%: Weekly wages increased by 3.6% over the past year.

The Good

The headline number in the August jobs report is good news for the Canadian economy. The 81,000 jobs added quadrupled the 20,000 job increase that analysts expected, according to Bloomberg. The increase is more than five times larger than Reuters economists expected, at just 15,000. Over the past year, Canada has added 471,300 jobs, the highest number since 2003. With this increase, the unemployment rate remained at 5.7%, which is near a historic low.

Ontario saw the biggest increase in jobs with 58,000 new positions, while Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick also gained jobs. Unemployment stayed steady for most of the country, but British Columbia and Nova Scotia saw an increase in their unemployment rates as more people started looking for work, CBC reports.

The Bad

While the 81,000 number looks great, the majority of the positions created are part-time jobs. The Global News reports that 57,200 of the newly created jobs are part-time Additionally, 42,000 of the positions are held by workers under 24-years-old. However, the majority of the jobs created over the past year have been full-time positions.

The Unknown

For those with questions about whether the Bank of Canada would consider a rate cut, the latest report indicates that is unlikely, Reuters reports.

However, according to The Wall Street Journal, some experts say the looming global downturn could start to have more of an effect on the Canadian economy.

“’We expect the global slowdown to take a more material bite’ by the fourth quarter, CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said. He said that could prompt the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates in late December or early next year.”

The Labor Department released its August jobs report which shows that U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs, lower than the 165,000 analysts expected. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% — a near 50 year low. Year-over-year wage growth remained at 3.2%, well ahead of inflation.

The Numbers

130,000: The economy added 130,000 jobs in August

3.7%: The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%.

3.2%: Wages increased by 3.2% over the past year.

The Good

According to economists, August’s jobs report numbers are decent but not great. The New York Times reports that one of the highlights of the report is the increase in labor market participation, which grew from 63% to 63.2%. This indicates that the economy is strong enough to draw in people who have been sidelined. The number is even more positive among workers between 25- and 54-years old, the prime working ages. In that group, the percentage of people working or looking for work increased from 82% to 82.6%.

The Bad

While many of the details of the latest report are not necessarily bad, they’re not necessarily good either. The job gains fell short of analyst expectations, and according to the Wall Street Journal, 25,000 of the jobs created in August are temporary positions for the 2020 census. Private-sector employers added just 96,000 jobs. Job growth appears to be slowing.

The New York Times also reports that industries that involve making something – manufacturing, mining and construction – are experiencing the most significant slowdowns, and this could be an indication that the economy is slowing. However, economists say that this report demonstrates that fears of a recession are overblown.

The Unknown

The big question is whether slowing growth is a symptom of a larger problem in the U.S. economy. The New York Times reports that while some sectors of the economy are slowing more than others, industries like business and professional services and healthcare are growing just fine. This suggests that while exceptional job growth isn’t likely to continue forever, the economy is more stable than some have feared.

The Wall Street Journal tells a similar story, with one analyst suggesting that the labor market has peaked, but could stay stead for some time.

“Overall economic growth probably averaged 2% over the last 12 months,” wrote Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip. “Given stable unemployment, that’s probably the U.S. economy’s long-run potential. Something will upset this equilibrium, but it’s hard to say what. For now, fiscal policy, trade war and interest rates seem to be mostly canceling each other out.”

Australia’s economy added 41,100 jobs in July, beating analyst expectations. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% as labour participation increased. The Bureau of Statistics reports that full-time employment increased by approximately 34,500 and part-time employment rose by close to 6,700.

Numbers

41,100: The Australian economy added 41,100 jobs in July.

5.2%: The Australian unemployment rate remained at 5.2%.

66.1%: Labour force participation rose at 66.1%.

+4: The Business Confidence Index rose to +4 in the latest NAB release.

Upside

After an initial report of only 500 net jobs added in June, the Australian economy gained 41,100 jobs in July, easily beating analyst expectations of 14,000. The unemployment rate did not decrease because the labour force participation rate rose to 66.1%, a record high. At this peak level of participation, approximately two out of every three Australians of working age are either currently employed or looking for work. The number of those employed in Australia has grown by 2.6% over the last year.

The states with the largest employment increases in July were Queensland with 19,900, New South Wales with 13,000 and Victoria with 3,600.

Downside

Despite the impressive job growth in July, unemployment rolls grew by 800. There was a reversal of fortune for Western Australia. In June, every state except Western Australia posted job losses. But in July, it had the nation’s largest number of jobs lost, decreasing by 4,200. The wage figures released this week showed continued stagnation with an annual rate growth of just 2.3% in the second quarter. This rate has not changed since the third quarter of 2018. It is thought that anemic wage growth was an important factor in RBA’s recent interest rate cut to a record low of 1%.

This deadlock in wages is generating speculation that additional interest rate cuts may be necessary since market forces alone are not boosting economic conditions:

“The data largely confirms the RBA’s view that spare capacity is limiting upward pressure on wages, and the economy needs to generate more jobs to absorb the extra workers,” said Sarah Hunter, chief economist at BIX Oxford Economics. “Given this, we still expect the Board to cut the cash rate again this year, to 0.75% and possibly one more time in early 2020.”

While some analysts do not predict robust action by the RBA, they caution that weaker job growth and higher unemployment is on the horizon. Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics expressed doubts that the job growth reported in July can be sustained:

“The strong rise in employment in July suggests the RBA won’t be in a rush to ease policy further, but we think it won’t be long before the unemployment rate starts to rise again,” he wrote.”Employment surveys suggest that jobs growth could slow to around 1% by the end of the year. That’s consistent with our forecast that the unemployment rate will climb to 5.5% by the middle of next year.”

The Future of Jobs in Australia

The latest figures from the Department of Employment predicts the employment outlooks for job titles for the five years spanning May 2018 to May 2023. Some of the notable forecasts include:

• Overall employment is predicted to grow by 7% or 886,100 jobs with a significant number of these likely to be part-time.
• Intelligence and policy analyst jobs will increase by more than a third to 40,200 in the five years from May 2018 to May 2023.
• The number of secretaries during the same period will decline by 13,600, or almost one third of the current number.
• The steepest growth will be in the relatively low-paid aged and disabled care sector with their workforce expected to rise to 245,000 by 2023, an increase of 39%. This strong growth is being driven by Australia’s aging population.
• The Department of Employment predicts a need for 11,300 extra psychologists by 2023.

The sectors which will experience the greatest growth are healthcare and social assistance; construction; education and training and professional, scientific and technical services. In fact, the Department of Employment predicts that two out of every three new jobs created will be generated by these sectors. 

The reasons given for growth in these areas are:

• An ageing population, the NDIS (Australia’s National Disability Insurance Scheme) and growing demand for childcare and home-care based services are driving jobs growth.
• Investment in infrastructure (like roads, railways and airports) means jobs will continue to grow in the engineering construction sector. Workers will also be needed to build homes for our growing population.
• The number of school-aged children is growing, and there is strong demand for adult and community education. More people are working part-time and in non-teaching support roles.
• Demand is growing for qualified workers, especially in computer system design and the management and consulting services sectors.

Those hoping to work in the jobs being created over the next few years should take the steps to acquire the necessary skills to succeed in them, and those planning to employ them should consider designing their recruitment strategies with a focus on the institutions providing them with the education and certifications to make them employable. Despite some strong growth in jobs that require little or no formal training, the Department of Employment predicts that over 90% of new jobs created will need “education beyond school and some jobs will need more training than they used to. Many professional and service roles demand university or VET (Vocational Education and Training) qualifications.”