Category: Talent & Market Insights

PeopleScout Jobs Report Analysis – May 2020

Posted on by nfuqua

In a surprising May jobs report, the Labor Department reports U.S. employers added 2.5 million jobs as some states began to ease coronavirus restrictions. Economists had expected further job losses. The unemployment rate fell to 13.3%. Year-over-year wage growth was at 6.7%. This is because the vast majority of the job losses in April were in lower-wage roles.

us jobs report infographic

The Numbers

2.5 million: Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May.

13.3%: The unemployment rate fell to 13.3%.

6.7%: Wages increased 6.7% over the last year.

The Good

The May numbers surprised economists and point to good news. According to MarketWatch, analysts had expected the May report to reflect a third straight month of job losses—a predicted loss of 7.25 million. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected an even worse 8.33 million loss. However, in May, employers added 2.5 million jobs, the highest single month gain since records began in 1948.

Nearly half of the job gains came in leisure and hospitality, a reflection of restaurants reopening as some states began to ease coronavirus restrictions. Additionally, many bars and restaurants received assistance from the government Paycheck Protection Program. This indicates that the U.S. economy may be on the road to a faster than expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

According to CNBC, the job gains nearly perfectly mirror the 2.7 million Americans who had reported their layoffs as “temporary.” Economists had been concerned that many of those layoffs would become permanent.

The Bad

While the large increase in employment is good news, the unemployment rate is still higher than any other recession since the Great Depression. Additionally, a broader measure of unemployment that includes jobless workers, those working part time and those who have given up the job search because they are too discouraged was at 21.2%, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The unemployment rate also varies based on gender and race. The rate for Hispanic and Latino workers was 17.6% and it was 16.8% for black Americans. While Asian-Americans face 15% unemployment and white workers are at 12.4%. The unemployment rate is also higher for women.

Job postings have also started to rise but are still far below the pre-pandemic numbers.

The Unknown

The COVID-19 pandemic leaves employers and economists with a lot of unknowns. As the New York Times reports, the $2.8 million stimulus is still helping the economy, but much of that assistance is set to end over the summer, including the enhanced unemployment benefits, which are set to end at the end of July.

It is also unclear how long companies can survive with decreased business, as many consumers choose to stay home and spend less. Additionally, experts worry about a second surge in coronavirus cases, which could hit in the fall.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — April 2020

Posted on by nfuqua

U.S. employers shed 20.5 million jobs in April as the coronavirus crisis began to show its real impact. The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, the highest level since the Great Depression. Year-over-year wage growth rose to 7.9%. This is because the vast majority of the job losses were in lower-wage roles. The numbers are even more bleak than they appear. The government’s definition of unemployed typically requires that people be actively looking for work. Additionally, 9 million workers claimed they were out of work for other reasons. If those people are counted, the unemployment rate jumps closer to 20%.

U.S. April Jobs Report 2020 infographic

The Numbers

20.5 Million: The U.S. economy shed 20.5 million jobs in April

14.7%: The unemployment rate rose to 14.7%.

7.9%: Wages rose 7.9% over the last year.

What We Know

The New York Times reports that the job losses in April alone are more than double the entire previous recession, where 8.7 million jobs were lost and unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The only comparable period was during the Great Depression. In 1933, unemployment reached around 25%, but the government did not report official monthly statistics until 1948.

The leisure and hospitality industry was hit especially hard, with more than 7.65 million jobs lost. That includes all jobs gained in the industry since 1988. Women and minorities were particularly hard hit, with the unemployment rate for Latino and Hispanic workers jumping to 18.9%, and the rate for women jumping to 16.2%.

The massive increase in hourly wages reflects the fact that the majority of the layoffs were in lower-wage positions, while higher-paid, white-collar workers were more likely to hold on to jobs.

What We Expect

The unemployment rate will likely continue to rise in May, according to CNBC, which predicts a rate around 20% for the month.

The numbers may also already be higher than the report currently reflects. MarketWatch reports that some furloughed workers or others who considered themselves employed, even though they weren’t working, were not counted. If those workers were counted, the rate would be around 20% already.  

Are There Any Bright Spots?

“Bright spot” is relative in this report. However, 78.3% of those who were laid off in April consider the separation temporary, while 11.1% say the layoff was permanent. This means those jobs could return if the COVID-19 crisis improves, but it also means those layoffs could become permanent if the situation worsens.

There may also be a bright spot for companies who have the resources to hire during the crisis. Harvard Business Review reports that this is an unprecedented opportunity to hire high-quality talent. There are a lot of highly skilled workers, from recent graduates to experienced leaders who are looking for work right now. Employers who can hire during this crisis can bring in strong people who otherwise might not have been seeking new opportunities.

Sainsbury’s: Getting More Vans on the Road

Posted on by edyson
Sainsbury's: Getting More Vans on the Road

Recruitment Media Campaign

Sainsbury’s: Getting More Vans on the Road

Grocery retailer Sainsbury’s turned to PeopleScout to hire drivers to support their growing online business.

6,200 annual hires
5 weeks to fill most roles
analytics informed approach resulted in reduced marketing spend
analytics informed approach resulted in reduced marketing spend

With online grocery shopping becoming increasingly popular, Sainsbury’s looked to PeopleScout to maximize the number of delivery slots that they could offer to customers. In a saturated marketplace, it wasn’t enough just to target existing drivers, we also needed to find those with transferable skills and encourage them to apply. The resulting strategy enabled Sainsbury’s to go to market with a number of highly targeted and locations-specific attraction campaigns.

Situation

Before engaging with PeopleScout, the client struggled to meet its hiring goals. Approximately two-thirds of candidates dropped out of the hiring process between the first two steps of the screening process. Many candidates couldn’t complete screening during traditional recruiting hours.  

In response to these challenges, PeopleScout provides a highly scalable delivery team to meet the client’s fluctuating hiring needs and address regional and cultural preferences during the screening process. PeopleScout’s centralized recruitment support ensures compliance and streamlines the process through innovative technology solutions. Positions in scope include 6,200 annual hires for warehouse and truck driver positions.

Sainsbury’s business strategy is to respond to the changing needs of their customers, enabling them to shop whenever and wherever they want. Seven days a week, Sainsbury’s delivers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise and clothing from suppliers around the world, via 33 distribution centers, to their store and online customers, meeting their requirements for flexible, convenient shopping.

Drivers are a vital part of this strategy, ensuring that Sainsbury’s can make deliveries to millions of customers at a time that suits them.

The online grocery department is a fast-growing business for Sainsbury’s. When we started this project, one in five employees worked in the department, but with changing consumer habits, this was soon to become one in three.

Despite being one of the company’s largest employee populations, it experienced high turnover in line with the challenging driver recruitment market. Some locations, for example, inner-city areas and affluent suburban locations, found it particularly hard to recruit.

The level of attrition made it hard for the department to grow, and driver availability became the limiting factor when it came to processing orders. It was vital for the business to hire more drivers immediately, but also have a robust strategy for the future too.

Solution

SOLUTION HIGHLIGHTS

  • Marketing Intelligence & Market Analysis
  • Persona Development
  • Process Design
  • Creative Development
  • Integrated Media Campaign

AT A GLANCE

  • COMPANY
    Sainsbury’s
  • INDUSTRY
    Retail
  • PEOPLESCOUT SOLUTIONS
    Recruitment Process Outsourcing, Talent Advisory
  • ANNUAL HIRES
    6,200 annual hires for warehouse and truck driver positions
  • LOCATIONS
    33 distribution centers
  • ABOUT SAINSBURY’S
    Sainsbury’s is a British supermarket and the second largest grocery chain in the United Kingdom. Since opening their first store in 1869, Sainsbury’s in focused on providing great value food and convenient shopping, whether in-store or online—as well as through their other brands Argos, Habitat, Tu, Nectar and Sainsbury’s Bank.
Contact Sales

Our first step was to leverage interviews and focus groups to understand the recruitment proposition for drivers at Sainsbury’s.

In addition to interviews, we utilized market mapping techniques to understand the labor force, reporting on salary benchmarks, competitor activity, and the socio-demographics of hard-to-fill locations.

Using the data collected from interviews and focus groups, we developed distinct driver personas, each with its own messaging framework and channel strategy. We used these to develop highly targeted comms for each group, responding to their motivations and behaviors.

Secondary messaging included: flexible shifts where we knew there was a high student population and non-monetary benefits such as child-care vouchers in areas that had a high density of families.

Results

The campaign was so successful that the majority of roles were filled within the first five weeks of the 12-week campaign, meaning that Sainsbury’s could cut back on their marketing spend. More impressively, seven locations needed to pause their recruitment due to high application numbers including two of the locations that were identified as hard-to-fill areas.

After speaking to hiring managers, existing employees, and those working for competitor organizations, we found that the majority of people eligible to be a Sainsbury’s delivery driver didn’t realize that they already had the skills to do the job. In fact, the role required skills like good customer service, time management, and self-motivation which we found to crossover with a number of different sectors.

This led us to design a creative route that focused on the core messaging of “All you need is a license” and “Where will your license take you?” educating the audience around the training and development new joiners received. This sat in contrast to another creative route which we used in locations that had high competitor activity. There we led with the messaging around the fact that Sainsbury’s offered guaranteed hours where other organizations did not.

Before the campaign, Sainsbury’s was engaging with candidates across multiple channels with different communications, which meant they ended up talking to the same audience in different ways, about different things. By taking this insight-driven segmented approach, Sainsbury’s could instead talk confidently about the things that mattered to candidates, using the channels that they were most likely to respond to.

“The success of the campaign so far has been unprecedented and as such after five weeks we are already in a place where most of our stores in the trial have filled all driver hours required. In total, we have received over 2,000 applications. We’ve extended 131 offers, and 106 have been accepted so far.”

Client Testimonial

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — March 2020

Posted on by nfuqua

U.S. employers shed 701,000 jobs in March as the coronavirus crisis began to impact the country. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Year-over-year wage growth rose to 3.1%. This ends the longest continuous economic expansion in U.S. history.

The numbers are expected to grow even more bleak in the coming months. The March numbers are based on reports from the first two weeks of the month, before many states implemented stay-at-home orders. Therefore, the full impact is not yet known.

U.S. jobs report infographic

The Numbers

701,000: The U.S. economy shed 701,000 jobs in March

4.4%: The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%

3.1%: Average hourly wages rose 3.1% over the last year.

The March Losses

The job losses are most significant in the leisure and hospitality sector, which shed 459,000 jobs as bars and restaurants closed and international and most domestic travel came to a halt. The March jobs report was the biggest monthly drop since the worst months of the Great Recession.

According to the New York Times, even industries that had initially continued running, like manufacturing, are starting to see major impacts as factories close. The job losses are also spread across industries considered essential, including healthcare, as dentists and other non-essential healthcare providers have closed their doors until the pandemic lifts.

There are very few bright spots in the report. Some employers in the transportation and warehousing sector and grocery stores have picked up hiring to meet increased demands.

What’s to Come

The numbers are likely to get far worse in the coming months. As MarketWatch reports, the March numbers don’t reflect the approximately 10 million people who filed for unemployment during the final two weeks of the month. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. could lose 27.9 million jobs and have an unemployment rate as high as 16% by the end of May. The nonpartisan congressional budget office predicts that unemployment will pass 10% in the second quarter of the year. April’s job report could show the largest ever drop in employment.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — February 2020

Posted on by nfuqua

The Labor Department released its February 2020 jobs report which shows that U.S. employers added 273,000 jobs in February, which beat analyst expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%. The labor force participation rate remained at 63.4%. Year-over-year wage growth fell to 3.0%. U.S. employers have now added to the payrolls for 113 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record.

U.S. Jobs Report February 2020

The Good

The headline numbers in the February jobs report are good news. According to MarketWatch, analysts had expected just 165,000 new jobs—far below the 273,000 added last month. The strongest gains came in healthcare, restaurants, construction and government jobs. Healthcare providers alone added 57,000 positions. This provides a strong baseline for the economy as concerns over the coronavirus grow.

The Bad

Despite the strong numbers, the New York Times reports that there are vulnerabilities in the economy. Business investment and wage growth have been sluggish for months. Hiring in manufacturing is also slowing. Analysts expect job creation as a whole to slow in 2020.

The Unknown

The biggest concern—the novel coronavirus—has yet to make an impact on the jobs report. The numbers in the February report come from the week of February 12—before the U.S. saw an uptick in coronavirus cases or deaths. Experts say the February report demonstrates a strong baseline against which they can monitor the impact of the virus in the U.S.

However, the Wall Street Journal reports that companies are starting to feel the effects. Airlines and hotels are reporting a decrease in business—with some airlines cutting back on the number of flights and announcing hiring freezes. Experts also expect the virus to have a large impact on restaurants, entertainment and retail. At the same time, there has already been increased growth in the healthcare and science sectors.

So far, the New York Times reports that the manufacturing sector is seeing mixed impacts from the virus. Those who depend on parts from China may be experiencing supply issues. However, some U.S. based manufacturers are seeing increased demand from companies that previously relied on overseas suppliers. Over the next few months, economists will be watching the impact closely.

3 Economic Trends That Will Affect Talent Acquisition in 2020

Posted on by skatz

Every talent acquisition professional is kind of an economic expert. In the process of filling positions, you become aware of local unemployment levels, current rates of compensation, and the competitive landscape in the sectors and markets in which you work. And, while understanding these specific conditions may be essential aspects of successful talent strategies, there are always larger economic forces at work. In this article, we cover three of economic trends and their impact on Talent Acquisition in 2020.

Understanding these economic trends can help develop an effective workforce strategy. To illustrate this point, PeopleScout has identified three economic trends that will affect talent acquisition and workforce management in 2020 – and potential ways to respond to the challenges and opportunities they bring.

Trade Disruption & Uncertainty

Uncertainty over trade due to Brexit, ongoing trade disputes between the U.S. and key trading partners, and other global commerce issues dominated the headlines in 2019. How will these yet-to-be-resolved issues affect talent acquisition?

Flexible Workforce Planning

Imagine planning a budget without knowing the future costs of goods and services. Due to current uncertainty over trade, this is the dilemma that many enterprises are facing. The imposition of tariffs in the U.S.-China trade dispute has caused shifts in both the price and availability of products, according to The New York Times. Uncertainty over whether Brexit will happen – and, if it does, what the consequences will be on nearly every aspect of the UK economy and other nations – remains uncertain. One way to respond to uncertainty is to make flexibility a key component in workforce planning. Flexible workforce planning can include contingent staffing, sourcing strategies that promote rapid onboarding and employee cross-training in anticipation of potential downsizing.

Dig Deeper

PeopleScout Webinar: Using Data to Optimize Your Recruiting Process and Employer Brand

register now

Sourcing Candidates from Alternative Talent Pools

While low unemployment still characterizes many of the world’s leading economies, trade disruption has also led to some job losses and displacement. For example, in Great Britain, a number of companies have closed, moved or are planning to, as reported by Metro in the UK. In both the U.S. and the UK, the manufacturing sector has seen job losses due to tariffs and trade uncertainty. Fortunately, many of those who work in manufacturing possess transferrable skills that can be used in other industries. Employers that can identify and attract this newly available source of talent will have a competitive advantage in tight labor markets.

The Migrant Workforce & Shifting Talent Landscape

The era of growing immigration to many advanced economies has been disrupted. The Guardian reports that thousands of European Union nationals have left the UK since the 2016 Brexit referendum, in large part due to the uncertainty over their legal status after an eventual exit from the EU. And, in the U.S., a tightening of available visas and selective immigration bans have caused the number of legal immigrants to plummet. On the other hand, 29% of Australia’s population is foreign-born, but the economic growth in many Asian countries – the source of much of Australia’s immigrant population – has contributed to its decline in net migration in recent years. 

Know the Affected Sectors

One important way for employers to respond to changing immigration patterns is to know which jobs are most affected and to plan accordingly. The reality is that immigrants comprise a significant portion of workers in a range of sectors. For example, nearly one-third of hotel workers in the U.S. are immigrants, and more than one in 10 healthcare workers in the UK are non-British nationals (half of these are from the EU), according to the Office for National Statistics. Understanding the sectors and markets that are affected by the falling rates of available talent from abroad may play an increasingly important role in developing effective talent acquisition strategies.

Talent Without Borders

The pool of available talent is exponentially expanded when work can be done outside of a fixed location. Advances in technology and communications have greatly reduced the need for many processes to take place in brick-and-mortar workplaces. For this reason, recruitment strategies may increasingly include a review of job descriptions to determine which positions can work from virtual locations, including those that are abroad. By doing so, employers can move beyond the constraints of limited talent pools and the wage pressures that tight labor markets generate.

OK, Boomer?

According to Glassdoor’s Chief Economist, Dr. Andrew Chamberlain, baby boomers, born between 1944 and 1964, are now the fastest-growing segment of the U.S. workforce. Dr. Chamberlain notes that “A ‘gray wave’ of senior citizens will be impacting the workforce in coming years, both in the United States and the United Kingdom.” In Canada, the percentage of workers aged 55 and older more than doubled in a little more than two decades; they are now more than one in five of all Canadian workers. Similarly, the number of Australians aged 65 and older who participated in the workforce in 2018 was 13%, compared to only 8% in 2006. And, in New Zealand, 22% of retirement-age people worked in 2016, an 87% increase in just 10 years.

Candidates with a Silver Lining

Given these striking statistics, an increasing number of applications from older candidates should be expected. In addition to the talent that these older candidates bring in their own right, they also help employers adopt a holistic approach to upskilling.

Take the case of a recent college graduate who has strong technical skills, but lacks industry knowledge and even critical soft skills, such as effective communication. These deficiencies can be offset by pairing this new hire with a seasoned industry veteran. The ensuing mentoring can go both ways; a tech-savvy new hire can help an older worker who may be challenged in this area, while the seasoned worker can guide and instruct the younger employee on important industry knowledge and work skills. This symbiotic pairing can also become an important element in an enterprise’s succession planning strategy.

Partnering for Success

Responding to economic trends can be daunting for those under constant pressure to fill positions and manage talent. However, tracking newly available workers due to shifting tariffs and treaties, knowing how to find candidates in unknown and far-flung locations, and navigating the process of recruiting from a broad range of age groups may seem overwhelming to even the best-equipped team of talent professionals. This is precisely why leveraging the expertise and resources of a talent acquisition partner can be the deciding factor for success in a complex and rapidly changing economic environment.

Talking Talent Leadership Profile: Jennifer Mattocks

Posted on by nfuqua

The roles of talent acquisition and HR are changing. When you talk with Jennifer Mattocks, it’s clear that she’s here to lead that change. PeopleScout’s Executive Leader of the Americas, Jennifer is the daughter of an artist and a mathematician – part creative, part analytical and constantly looking for better ways to work.

Dig Deeper

PeopleScout Webinar: Using Data to Optimize Your Recruiting Process and Employer Brand

register now

Jennifer doesn’t come from a traditional recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) background. With more than 20 years of experience leading enterprise client management and strategic sales teams in HR advisory services and talent assessment, Jennifer has a broad view across the HR function and has seen firsthand the way it’s transforming. She has a deep understanding of not just talent acquisition, but also the full employee lifecycle.

We spoke with Jennifer at our Chicago headquarters about the changes headed for HR, the forces behind that transformation and what organizations should be doing now to be ready for what’s next.

We’re starting a new decade with historically low unemployment and skills shortages, making it more difficult to find and hire the right talent. How should employers approach their workforce planning?

Thinking about the skills shortage, there have been a few statistics that have caught my eye. One is that the World Health Organization predicts that there will be a worldwide shortage of 15 million healthcare workers by 2030. That’s not far away. This is an issue that we need to focus on now. Another is that according to the Department of Labor, 17.4% of workers in the U.S. are now foreign-born, and it’s rising. That means we need to have a global perspective when we’re looking at our workforce.

As it relates to the skills shortage, employers should be thinking about the influence of significant shifts in the talent landscape and how they address them in their workforce planning strategies. Strong talent pipelines will hinge on the idea of the fluid workforce – the idea of non-linear career development – and making sure that we have programs in place to have the right skills at the right time in the right place.

One way to adapt to the challenges that we’re facing in finding the right talent is through a total workforce solution, which allows employers the flexibility to be able to address skills shortages and low unemployment. For some industries, healthcare included, that means we need to look at ways we can find talent with relevant skills through non-traditional channels. Then, by closely tying training and development with talent acquisition, we have the ability to realign talent to roles and responsibilities that fit with their current skills.

How do you see the role of HR transforming to adapt to the changing world of work?

One role of HR is matching people’s skills to work. As HR and talent leaders, we know we cannot assume that when an individual is placed in a role, that is what they will do – or want to do – for the rest of their career. Creating nimble career paths and opportunities for ongoing development will be critical to the success of any HR leader going forward.

An example to illustrate the change we’ll see from HR is through how we approach career pathing. Right now, we have a career ladder that goes from bottom to top. That ladder is going to be flipped on its side – and it already has, to some degree. Individuals are seeking different skillsets or opportunities to develop within the organization, which doesn’t always translate to a linear career progression. Employees also want to have stronger ownership and input into their own career development; we see this characterized by input particularly from the millennial and Gen Z talent, who are just starting to enter the workforce and seek variety in opportunity.

I also anticipate that we’ll see the idea of the external gig economy brought in house. Meaning, HR will serve as a hub that is responsible for moving talent throughout an organization based on individual skillsets, the work that needs to get done and the way talent wants to work. With that, HR as a function will change, and the skills needed to succeed in HR will change, as well.

To this end, I see the need for a much tighter connection, even blending, of talent acquisition and talent development roles. Not only is HR responsible for nimbly fulfilling the talent needs of the business to deliver on the work that needs to get done today, but HR is also responsible for providing structure, resources and tools for the development of talent pools for the future. So, we will see HR marrying those two roles to a degree we haven’t yet seen.

What is the role of technology in the changing world of HR?

HR leaders first need to have a thoughtful strategy, then make sure the technology supports and enables the strategy. With a strategic foundation in place, technology will facilitate the ability of organizations to do three things.

First is to have visibility into and a more comprehensive understanding of the talent that they have in place today, as well as the talent pools that exist both internally and externally. Second, HR leaders can leverage learning and collaboration technology to build up the skillsets that perhaps are missing or need development within the organization. I think we’ll see a lot more innovation to come related to this. And third, HR can utilize technology, AI and analytics to better match individuals at the right time to the work that needs to be done.

Technology will also change the HR roles we see today in a fundamental way. There’s a lot of talk about certain roles being replaced by technology and tasks replaced by automation, but we still need human thought, perspective and ethical input to drive technology to make the right decisions. The human touch will never go away and will increase in importance for organizations to be competitive.

What are you most excited about for the future of talent acquisition?

There are two things. One is that we are at the point in which HR and talent acquisition needs to be prescriptive to drive success. Then, HR needs to deliver on the needs of the business while driving the engagement and productivity of the employees. It’s going to be fun to see that shift start to be more pronounced.

I think the other really exciting shift is one that’s personal to me, given the age of my children, and that’s seeing Gen Z enter the workforce and even start to enter management. This is a generation that more naturally and openly drives inclusivity and values having an ethical decision-making process behind what they do. They really embrace technology in novel ways, and having individuals with those capabilities entering the workforce will be very exciting for talent acquisition. I think it will continue to shape how we hire, promote and develop talent, and I look forward to seeing the positive changes they bring.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — January 2020

Posted on by nfuqua

The Labor Department released its January 2020 jobs report which shows that U.S. employers added 225,000 jobs in January, which beat analyst expectations. The unemployment rose to 3.6%. The labor force participation rate rose to 63.4%. Year-over-year wage growth increased to 3.1%. U.S. employers have now added to the payrolls for 112 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record.

jobs report infographic

The Numbers

225,000: The economy added 225,000 jobs in January.

3.6%: The unemployment rate rose to 3.6%.

3.1%: Average hourly wages increased at a rate of 3.1% over the last year.

The Good

The overall jobs numbers for January look strong. The 225,000 jobs added to the economy beat analyst expectations of just 160,000 in the first month of 2020, according to CNN. The growth was strongest in construction, healthcare and transportation and warehousing. Some of that increase could be attributed to a warmer than average January.

While an increasing unemployment rate can sometimes be seen as a downside, in this report, it demonstrates that more sidelined workers are being pulled into a strong economy. The Washington Post reports that the labor participation rate hit a seven-year high of 63.4%.

The Bad

The strong hiring numbers in January didn’t apply across all industries. Manufacturing continued to lose jobs. Marketwatch reports that those losses were caused by the trade war with China. Jobs in retail also dropped.

Additionally, the January report included a few revisions that decreased the number of jobs created in 2019. The overall employment level for March 2019 was decreased by 514,000 jobs. For all of 2019, the number of jobs added to the economy fell by 12,000 to 2.096 million jobs.

The Unknown

Despite strong job growth, the yearly wage growth remains lower than expected. The Wall Street Journal reports that the growing number of people reentering the workforce could be a factor in keeping the rate of wage growth from increasing more quickly. However, the cause of the persistently sluggish wage growth has been debated by economists for the past couple of years.

It is also still unclear what impact the coronavirus will have on U.S. jobs numbers. The easing of the trade war with China was expected to relieve some of the strain on the manufacturing industry. However, increasing concern about the virus could impact that. The data used for the January report was collected before news about the spread of the virus.  

PeopleScout Canada Jobs Report Analysis — December 2019

Posted on by nfuqua

Statistics Canada reported that the nation’s unemployment fell to 5.6%. In December, the economy added 35,000 jobs, beating analyst expectations. The total number of jobs added in Canada in 2019 was 320,000. Average weekly wages increased 3.7% on an annual basis. Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island all posted job gains, while declines were recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Canada jobs report infographic

The Numbers

35,000: The economy gained 35,000 jobs in December.

5.6%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.6%.

3.7%: Weekly wages increased 3.7% over the last year.

The Good

Statistics Canada reported that 35,000 jobs were added to the national economy in December, which in great part reversed the losses recorded in November. In 2019, employment increased by 320,000 or 1.7%. This was primarily due to gains in full-time work which grew by 283,000 or 1.9%. In contrast to the United States, Canada added more jobs in 2019 than in 2018. 

From an annual perspective, Ontario, Canada’s most populous province was a clear winner in job growth. Employment in Ontario increased 243,000, an impressive 3.3%. This was the largest year-over-year increase measured in December since 1987, and the growth was driven by full-time jobs in a range of industries. Quebec also posted healthy gains in 2019 adding 63,000 positions growing 1.5% over the year and was driven by full-time work. The strongest gains were from the two groups at opposite ends of the age spectrum, youth aged 15 and 24 and people aged 55 and over.

Weekly wage growth dipped in the final report of the decade on an annual basis, but it is still one and a half percentage points higher than the rate of inflation. Canada ended the year and the decade on a positive note with unemployment dropping three-tenths of a percentage point to 3.6%.

The Bad

At 3.6%, Canada’s unemployment rate was the same in December 2019 as it was in December 2018. In May, the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4% which was a record low since the start of comparable record-keeping in 1976. The ensuing months produced uneven results which disappointed observers hoping for an extended period of historic low unemployment. 

While the job gains in December were generally considered strong, they did not completely make up for the November losses. In addition, the strongest sectors for job gains was in accommodations and food service and in construction. While an increase in construction jobs in the midst of winter is considered to be a positive indicator, growth in foodservice and the hotel sector may be short-term since they are closely tied to the holiday season. Even the robust growth in Ontario posted losses in one troubled sector, posting losses for jobs in manufacturing. Most other large provinces had little significant change in their job levels in 2019.

Wage growth, while still strong, has been fluctuating throughout the year so there is no clear trend that has been established. Annual pay increases at the hourly level in some key sectors of the Canadian economy were well below that national rate of 3.6%. For example, the increase in the sales and services sector, stood at 2.6% in December, a full percentage point below the national figure.

Future Job Growth:  Geography as Destiny?

Over the past year, Ontario accounted for 76% of Canada’s job growth.  Based on last year’s numbers, almost all job increases are taking place east of Manitoba. However, when viewed on a provincial basis, these numbers can be misleading. It is instructive to look at some local growth rates to get a more accurate picture.  While British Columbia’s job market may be stagnant, Abbotsford and Victoria were ranked third and fourth, on BMO’s ranking of cities with the strongest job markets. Alberta’s relatively sluggish job market is contrasted with Calgary which added 3.3% new jobs last year, vastly outpacing the national rate.

And despite the surface geographical contrasts, the variance between the best-performing and worst-performing parts of the country is narrowing. As BMO’s senior economist Robert Kavcic notes, “job convergence is taking place all over Canada.” Canadian employers should look beyond the headlines to assess the accurate jobs situation in their markets and sectors as they plan their strategies for recruitment and retention in the rapidly evolving labour environment.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — December 2019

Posted on by nfuqua

The Labor Department released its December 2019 jobs report which shows that U.S. employers added 145,000 jobs in December, which was below analyst expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged at 63.2%. Year-over-year wage growth slipped to 2.9%. U.S. employers have added to payrolls for 111 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record.

U.S. Jobs Report infographic

The Numbers

145,000: The economy added 145,000 jobs in December.

3.5%: The unemployment rate held at 3.5%.

2.9%:  Average hourly wages increased at a rate of 2.9% over the last year.

The Good

The final jobs report of the decade showed another month of solid job growth. The average monthly gains for the last three months of 2019 were 184,000, which is close to the quarterly averages earlier in the year. In the last year, 2.1 million jobs were added, which is more than sufficient to keep up with the demands of population growth. There were notable monthly increases in the retail sector with 41,200 jobs added, in healthcare which was up by 28,000 and in leisure and hospitality which grew by 40,000.

From an annual perspective, many key sectors recorded job growth or were little changed.  Growth in healthcare was especially impressive. The sector added 399,000 jobs in 2019, increasing by 49,000 more positions than in 2018. Even some industries which experienced setbacks over the course of the year posted modest gains overall in 2019. Manufacturing grew by 46,000, and retail jobs increased by 9,000.

The year began with an unemployment rate of 4.0% in January and ended at a 50-year low of 3.5%. Significantly, an alternative measure of unemployment which captures those underemployed and marginally attached to the workforce known as the U-6, fell to 6.7% in December, the lowest on record going back to 1994.

The Bad

The December report confirmed that a decade of robust job growth ended with a notable slow-down. The 2.11 million jobs added last year was a drop from the 2.68 million added in 2018, and 2019 was ranked eighth for job growth in the past 10 years. With the exceptions of healthcare and leisure and hospitality, most key sectors added significantly fewer jobs in 2019 than in 2018. The transportation and warehousing sector which is closely tied to the overall economic health of both the nation and the world, added just 57,000 jobs in 2019, approximately one-fourth of the 2018 gain of 216,000.

The labor participation rate at 63.2% remained steady. However, this rate is still below the levels posted before the Great Recession. The stall in participation may indicate that no matter how low the unemployment rate falls, additional Americans who are out of the labor force are not being drawn back into it. Some economists have suggested that an underlying reason for this is the changing age demographics of the United States due to its low birth rate and aging population. This trend is not expected to change anytime soon.

Instead of posting strong wage gains at a time of historic low unemployment, the rate of growth actually decreased in December. While the 2.9% annual wage increase is still ahead of an inflation rate of just less than 1.5%, workers in many sectors are having their wages grow at a rate much lower than the national average. 

Easier to Get a Job Than a Raise

As Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton noted: “It’s easier to get a job than a raise in this economy.” While some employers may benefit from attracting those who are seeking a new job due to their stunted paychecks, they may be just as likely to lose talent for the same reason. Adding to the challenge of extremely low unemployment, the most recent jobs opening report showed an increase in vacancies which continues to be higher than those who are unemployed.