PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

The Labor Department released its August jobs report which shows 201,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy. U.S. employers have added to payrolls for 95 straight months, extending the longest continuous jobs expansion on record. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9 percent.


The Numbers

201,000: The economy added 201,000 jobs in August.
3.9%: The unemployment remained at 3.9 percent.
2.9%: Wages increased 2.9 percent over the last year.

The Good

The 201,000 jobs added in August modestly beat analyst expectations. Average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers increased 10 cents last month to $27.16, a 2.9 percent increase from last August. This increase is the strongest year-over-year rise in earnings since the current expansion began in 2009. Over the past six months, 781,000 part-time workers have moved to full-time jobs.
Professional and business services added 53,000 jobs in August and 519,000 jobs over the year. The healthcare sector also had robust job gains with an addition of 33,000 positions in August and 301,000 since August 2017.

The Bad

The reason that the unemployment rate remained unchanged despite the job gains is that the labor participation rate dropped .02 percentage points from the previous month. This may indicate that there are limits for the tight job market to lure back those who have stayed out of the workforce.
While the loss of 3,000 manufacturing jobs in August may not be significant, most of these losses were in trade-affected industries like automobiles and transportation equipment. Without a resolution to the current trade disputes, the employment outlook in key manufacturing sectors is unclear and may have negative ripple effects in the nation’s industrial heartland.

The Unknown

It is not certain whether the decrease in the labor force will become a trend in the coming months. In 2008, more than 66 percent of adults were in the labor force which decreased to 62.7 percent in early 2015. This is the same level it fell to in August. A major factor is demographic change, with baby boomers hitting retirement age. It is uncertain whether a potential shortfall in workers can be addressed through immigration and automation.

PeopleScout Canada Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

Canada Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

Statistics Canada released its August 2018 Labour Force Survey which shows a loss of 51,600 jobs from the Canadian economy, driving the unemployment rate up to 6.0 per cent from 5.8 per cent in July. The loss of 92,000 part-time positions contributed to the drop.


The Numbers

-51,600: The economy lost 51,600 jobs in July.
6.0%: The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 per cent.
2.9%: Wages increased by 2.9 per cent over the last year.

The Good

Offsetting the loss of part-time jobs, full-time jobs rose by 40,400. For three provinces, the news was more positive than the nation as a whole. Employment in Alberta increased by 16,000, where the unemployment rate remained at 6.7 per cent because more people participated in the labour market.
In Manitoba, employment rose by 2,600, due to an increase in part-time work, and the unemployment rate was 5.8 per cent. While over the last year, employment in the province was unchanged, the unemployment rate increased 0.8 percentage points as the number of people looking for work increased in August. In British Columbia, employment edged up and the unemployment rate increased 0.3 percentage points to 5.3 per cent as more people in the province were brought into the labour market.
Compared to 12 months earlier, Canada’s overall employment is still up 0.9 per cent, following the addition of 171,700 jobs, including 326,100 full-time positions.

The Bad

The job losses in August wiped out the gains made in July. Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, lost 80,100 jobs last month after gaining 60,600 in July, both of which were almost entirely caused by volatile swings in part-time work. Ontario’s August decrease, a drop of 1.1 per cent, was by far the biggest decline among the provinces.
Average hourly wage growth continued its gradual slide in August to 2.9 per cent after increasing 3.2 per cent year over year in July and 3.6 per cent in June. The slowing of wage increases may create difficulties for Canadian employers who could see workers leave for jobs in other companies with the hope of substantial salary increases.

The Unknown

The result of the current intense negotiations between the U.S. and Canada regarding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA may have a profound effect on the Canadian economy for years to come. Because the United States is Canada’s biggest trading partner, employers in the many sectors that depend on exports for profitability may hesitate to expand their workforce until a final agreement is reached.

PeopleScout Australia Jobs Report Analysis – July 2018

The Australia Bureau of Statistics released its July Labour Force Key Statistics and the Average Weekly Earnings, May 2018 numbers, showing a decrease in employment and missing analyst expectations. The unemployment rate also fell slightly due to a decrease in labour force participation.

Australia Jobs Report Analysis – July 2018

The Numbers


-3,900: The Australian economy lost 3,900 jobs in July.
5.3%: The Australian unemployment rate decreased to 5.3 per cent.
65.5%: Labour force participation decreased to 65.5 per cent.
2.7%: From May 2017 to May 2018, the average weekly earnings of adults increased 2.7 per cent

Upside


While the numbers in the July jobs report are mixed, economists say the overall trend points to a strong economy, according to Business Insider. Experts say the decrease in employment is mainly due to “monthly volatility,” or normal month-to-month variation. Additionally, the loss in jobs can be attributed to part-time employment, as full-time employment actually rose by 19,300 in July. The unemployment rate is also the lowest rate since 2012.


There is also positive news for wage growth in Australia, though it isn’t apparent in the overall number. Staffing Industry Analysts reports that the gender wage gap for adults employed full time has dropped to its lowest point in twenty years. The gender pay gap fell from 15.3 per cent to 14.6 per cent in the past 12 months.

Downside


The decrease in employment is disappointing, as economists had projected an increase of 15,000 jobs in July. Additionally, the decrease in unemployment can be attributed to a decrease in labour force participation.


Wage growth remains slow, and experts say while the economy is strong, it isn’t likely to trigger a stronger increase in wages yet.

Unknown


Looking ahead, economists debate how this month’s numbers impact the country’s slow movement toward full employment, which experts say will occur with an unemployment rate of 5.0 per cent. Growth in 2018 has been slower than 2017, but it continues on a positive trajectory.

PeopleScout UK Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

The Office for National Statistics released its August Labour Market Bulletin which reports on the three months of April, May and June 2018. The bulletin reports 42,000 jobs added in the quarter and a decrease in the unemployment rate by 0.2 per cent from the previous quarter. The report is unchanged from last month in showing that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation, minus bonuses) increased by 2.7 per cent over the last year.

UK Jobs Report Analysis — August 2018

The Numbers

42,000: The economy added 42,000 jobs over the April-June 2018 period.
4.0%: The unemployment fell 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.
2.7%: Wages (excluding bonuses) increased 2.7 per cent over the last year.

The Good

UK unemployment fell by 65,000 to 1.36 million in three months of April, May and June – the lowest in more than 40 years. The unemployment rate has not been lower since December 1974 through February 1975.  Compared to one year ago, 313,000 more people are working in the UK. For people between 16- and 64-years old, 75.6 per cent are working, up from 75.1 per cent a year earlier. For women between 16-and 64-years old, 71.0 per cent are employed, up from 70.5 per cent a year earlier. The employment rate for men in the same age range, 80.1 per cent are working; the employment rate for men has not been higher since February to April 1991.

The Bad

The lackluster rate of wage increases may create challenges for employers who may see an increasing number of employees look for new jobs as the most direct path to raise their wages in a healthy job market. While the wage increase still outpaces inflation, there is doubt as to whether this will have a significant impact on the overall economy.

As Bloomberg notes:


“There remains precious little sign that wage growth is set to take-off – undermining a key assumption behind the Monetary Policy Committee’s recent decision to raise rates,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce. “The pace at which pay is exceeding price growth remains negligible, and is therefore unlikely to provide much respite to the financially squeezed consumer.”

The Unknown

The ONS figures show the number of European Union nationals working in the UK fell by a record amount. This decrease was the largest annual amount since records began in 1997 and continues a trend seen since the 2016 Brexit vote. This decrease contrasts with a rise in the number of non-EU nationals working in the UK to 1.27 million, which is 74,000 more than a year earlier. Without determining the status of EU nationals working in Britain after a final Brexit settlement, the composition of the UK labour force in both the near and long-term remains uncertain.

PeopleScout Canada Jobs Report Analysis — July 2018

Canada Jobs Report Analysis — July 2018

Statistics Canada released its July 2018 Labour Force Survey which shows 54,100 jobs added to the Canadian economy. That number impressively exceeded analyst expectations of 17,000. Unemployment fell by 0.2 percentage points to 5.8 per cent, a four-decade low. Wage growth slowed from previous months, and the bulk of the job growth came from part-time jobs.


The Numbers

54,100: The economy added 54,100 jobs in July.
5.8%: The unemployment rate fell to 5.8 per cent.
3.2%: Wages increased 3.2 percent over the last year.

The Good

Strong employment gains were made in major service-producing sectors including educational services; health care and social assistance; and information, culture and recreation. Over a one year period, employment grew by 246,000 (+1.3 per cent). These gains were largely the result of growth in full-time work (+211,000 or +1.4 per cent).
For the core-aged (25 to 54) population, employment increased by 35,000, boosted by gains among women (+30,000). The unemployment rate for women in this age group was down 0.3 percentage points to 4.9 per cent. Over a one year period, employment grew for both women (+72,000 or +1.2 per cent) and men (+41,000 or +0.6 per cent) in the core-aged group.

The Bad

According to the July report, Canada added 82,000 less desirable, part-time positions last month and lost 28,000 full-time jobs. The overall positive impact on the economy is diminished by the smaller income available to Canadian families than if the gains had been made in full-time positions.
The public sector made the biggest contribution to the July increase with 49,600 new jobs, while the private sector added only 5,200 positions. National Bank of Canada chief economist Stefane Marion wrote in a report Friday that the public sector is the “only game in town” so far in 2018. Marion’s research note was titled, “Where are the private sector jobs?”

The Unknown

Canadian analysts noted the mixed messages from July’s report. CTV News cited a research note from the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, “In the wacky world of Canada’s monthly employment numbers, July came up with another head-scratcher, with some big headlines but some disappointments in the fine print,” CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld wrote Friday in a research note to clients.
Shenfeld added that there are “lots of reasons to question just how good the data really are here.”
Overall, he said the report contained a “good” set of numbers that will keep markets guessing whether the Bank of Canada will introduce its next interest rate hike in September or October. CIBC predicts the next rate increase will land in October as the central bank continues to proceed cautiously along its rate-hiking path.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — July 2018

U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — July 2018

The Labor Department released its July jobs report which shows 157,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy, continuing the longest stretch of job growth in the nation’s history. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.9 percent from the previous month.

The Numbers

157,000: The economy added 157,000 jobs in July.
3.9%: The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent.
2.7%: Wages increased 2.7 percent over the last year.

The Good

The July jobs report shows continuing and steady job growth. Although the increase in jobs last month came in slightly below expectations, figures for payroll increases in May and June were revised substantially higher. The Labor Department reported that the economy added 268,000 jobs in May, up from an initial estimate of 244,000, while the June gain was revised upward to 248,000 from 213,000.
Healthy expansion continued in key sectors of the economy including manufacturing with an annual increase of 327,000 jobs and business and professional services, which grew by 518,000 positions in the last year.

The Bad

The 2.7 percent annual increase in wages reported in July is not significantly different from the wage growth figures over the last two years. While the burden of major salary increases has not yet directly impacted employers, wage stagnation can create challenges in employee retention.  Wages have remained steady while the cost of living has increased for many Americans. For example, it is estimated that home prices are growing twice as fast as income growth.  In the current job market, candidates can be reasonably confident that there will another job waiting for them if they leave their current position. Because research shows that money is the top motivator for employees to quit their jobs, there is significant urgency for employers to have sound recruitment and retention programs in place.

The Unknown

The recently imposed tariffs on U.S. trading partners does not yet appear to have affected the domestic job market. However, threats of an all-out trade war with China may force employers to rein in hiring projections. It has been estimated that trade with China supports as many as 2.6 million U.S. jobs, and a sharp and sudden decrease in trade with China could have a significant negative impact on the U.S. economy.

PeopleScout Australia Jobs Report Analysis – June 2018

The Australia Bureau of Statistics released its June Labour Force Key Statistics. The increase in employment by 50,900 beat analyst expectations and is the strongest job growth since last November. Unlike May, the increase was led by full-time jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.4 per cent, in part due to the increase in Australians participating in the labour force.

Australia Jobs Report Analysis – June 2018

The Numbers


50,900: The Australian economy added 50,900 jobs in June.
5.4%: The Australian unemployment rate remained at 5.4 per cent.
65.7%: Labour force participation increased to 65.5 per cent.
+6: According to the NAB, the business confidence index fell to +6 index points.

Upside


The net job gain of 50,900 in June continued the trend of monthly job growth. Since June 2017, full-time employment has increased by 158,200 and part-time employment has increased by 180,800.


The increase in the labour force participation rate can be explained by more Australians having confidence in finding a job. In seasonally adjusted terms, the largest increase in employment was in New South Wales (27,300), followed by Queensland (14,800).


The chief economist head of research, Asia-Pacific for ING noted the significance of the increase in full-time jobs in the Financial Times:


“Strong growth in full-time jobs in June helped to shift a labour market that was beginning to be dominated by part-time jobs. Our full-time equivalence measure suggests that labour demand is now picking up strength. Were this to also be reflected in some improved wages growth, it could radically change the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which most forecasters see on hold all this year, and possibly all of next year too.”

Downside


According to a study released in June by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the unemployment rate for people between 15- and 24-years-old in Australia is seven points higher than the national unemployment rate. Though this rate has historically been higher than for the rest of the population, Australia has an aging workforce. Businesses need to urgently address the challenge of attracting the right talent from the nation’s younger generation.

Unknown


An opinion piece in Bloomberg notes the shifts in Australia’s key relationships which could drastically impact its economy:


“The most significant are two related shifts. The first is changing relations between Australia’s biggest trading partner, China, and the guarantor of Australian security, the U.S. The second is the nature of Australia’s relationship with each of them. China’s growth is slowing, and its economy is driven less by investment and exports and more by domestic consumption. That means a waning appetite for the raw materials Australia sells it even as China’s economy grows bigger overall. And at some point, China may well have its own recession. Nothing lasts forever.”

A Look into the Gig Economy

According to research conducted by Freelancing in America, an estimated 57.3 million Americans—36 percent of the American workforce—work as freelancers or participate in gig work.  What’s more, a study conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute found that 20-30 percent of the labor force in the European Union is now made up of independent workers who are self-employed or do temporary work. Thanks to the rise of freelancing platforms such as Uber, Airbnb, TaskRabbit and Fiverr, finding non-traditional means of employment is easier than ever.

So what does the gig economy mean for employers and employees alike? How will recruiting tactics and strategies adapt to meet the challenges and opportunities provided by the gig economy? In this post, we explore the effects, benefits and challenges facing employers and employees participating in the gig economy.

The Gig Economy’s Effect on Workers

Based on job search results across their site, Indeed discovered that interest in flexible and non-traditional work has increased 42 percent since 2013 based on the number of candidates looking for job postings that include the words “remote,” “work from home,” and “telecommute.” What’s more, a BLS survey reports the total number of contingency-based jobs grew from 14,826,000 in 2005 to 15,482,000 in 2017, a gain of 656,000 jobs or 4.6 percent over twelve years.

From college students unable to commit to full-time work to people looking to supplement their income, people searching for gig work come from all walks of life. Below, we cover the benefits and challenges confronting gig workers.

Increased Flexibility

For workers in the gig economy, flexibility is one of the biggest benefits. In fact, in a study of Uber drivers the drivers were asked the following question: “If both were available to you, at this point in your life, would you rather have a steady 9-to-5 job with some benefits and a set salary or a job where you choose your own schedule and be your own boss?” 73 percent of respondents selected flexibility over a traditional job. This indicates that workers looking for gig work are searching for a job that fits their lifestyle, skill set and schedule.

No Experience Necessary

Most gig jobs have low barriers to entry, making on-demand work easy to start. For ridesharing services like Lyft or Uber, all an applicant needs is a vehicle, a valid driver’s license and a clean driving record. For room-sharing services like Airbnb, all you need is an extra room. Zirtual provides opportunities for micro-tasking as a virtual assistant for potential workers with good administrative abilities and technical skills. Gig workers should think about their interests and skills and to find gig opportunities that complement their strengths.

Worker Concerns

On-demand and gig labor provide opportunities for employment for workers of all ages, skill levels and educational backgrounds. However, contract work typically means that most of the protections and benefits afforded to W-2 employees are absent in the gig economy. Severance packages, disability leave, PTO, sick days, health insurance and workers compensation are just a few of the benefits afforded to employees but not contractors, freelancers or gig workers. Freelance workers often work other jobs to receive the protections and benefits often absent in gig work.

The Gig Economy’s Effect on Businesses

The most obvious appeal of hiring temporary staff is that you can build a responsive workforce, tailored to suit your business goals and objectives. Organizations can quickly scale their workforces to supplement in-house staff or find workers with the skills needed to tackle important projects. In this section, we outline the strategies employers can use to optimize gig hiring.

Hire for the Right Positions

Employers should carefully consider which specific jobs they need freelancers to perform and make sure the contractors clearly understand what they are expected to deliver. For example, in creative work, organizations need to outline specific deliverables so that both parties can agree when the project is considered complete.

Organizations need to also keep in mind that contract work is not suitable for all roles and projects. If an organization needs workers for a long-term project, it is sometimes best to hire permanent staff as a contractor for a 2-year project may be more costly than hiring a full-time employee. Contract employees with skills in high demand may prefer to work short contracts to maintain their flexibility.

Leverage Technology

Sourcing, vetting, contracting and paying a consistent flow of gig workers is time-consuming. This additional work can overwhelm HR and procurement departments. To streamline these processes, organizations can use robust technology solutions that combine multiple processes into one platform. These platforms can automate the contracting and payment processes to reduce administrative work and keep track of gig workers and the projects they are working on.

Provide Benefits

A report from the Texas Workforce Investment Council found that a major drawback for gig workers is the lack of benefits available. The report also found that as long as employers pay gig workers a competitive wage, they are happy to purchase their own benefits. Most gig opportunities do not provide benefits. This presents an opportunity for organizations looking to attract gig employees. Workers may be more willing to take an opportunity or work consistently for an employer if they can rely on even a modest benefits package or pay rates that allow them to purchase their own benefits.

Managing Gig Employees

Effectively managing a gig workforce is complex. A thorough understanding of the gig economy can help organizations integrate policies and processes into company strategy and structure. The following are three key areas of gig workforce management and how you can best approach them.

Worker Misclassification

Depending on how gig workers are managed on the job, employers run the risk of a worker being managed as if they are a W-2 employee. Even when hiring managers have a good understanding of the difference between an employee and a contractor, managers may still treat contractors as W-2 employees. This can be an expensive mistake. In cases where misclassification is deemed unintentional, an employer may be charged:

  • A $50 fee for each W-2 that was not filed
  • 1.5 percent of the employee’s wages, plus interest
  • 40 percent of the employee’s FICA (Social Security and Medicare) contributions
  • 100 percent of the employer’s matching FICA contributions

Employees who believe they have been misrepresented can file a complaint with the Department of Labor or their state labor agency. Misclassification can usually be avoided by partnering with an MSP, RPO or total workforce solutions partner with a focus on compliance.

Employee Quality

The quality of workers in a gig-based economy can be hit or miss. Unless an employer reviews every potential workers’ prior work experience and history, they can never know the quality of worker they are getting. By working with an MSP provider and reputable staffing firms, organizations can rest assured that they are getting workers who have been properly vetted against their requirements. What’s more, if a worker fails to meet your organization’s standard, you can work with your MSP or staffing supplier to source and hire better quality workers.

Supervision

Someone within your organization needs to be responsible for ensuring gig workers deliver on their contracts. Some employers do not have the infrastructure to keep up with a high number of freelancers and projects. Organizations can ensure projects are on track and workers are delivering on their promises by assigning staff to monitor gig workers.

RPO Role in the Gig Economy

For many organizations, the demand on HR to recruit talent and manage an organization’s traditional workforce can interfere with their ability to handle similar responsibilities for gig workers. An RPO partner can help in two major ways:

  • Delivering a complete end-to-end solution for talent acquisition, retention and utilization for the short-term work requirements of an organization’s talent acquisition program.
  • Providing the tools and technology needed to hire and manage gig workers.

To learn more about how an RPO provider can help meet your gig hiring and talent acquisitions needs, visit PeopleScout’s RPO services page.

PeopleScout Canada Jobs Report Analysis — June 2018

Canada Jobs Report Analysis — June 2018

Statistics Canada released its June 2018 Labour Force Survey which shows 32,000 jobs added to the Canadian economy. While unemployment rose by 0.2 percentage points to 6.0 percent, this was due to an increase in job seekers.

The Numbers

32,000: The economy added 32,000 jobs in June.
6.0%: The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent.
3.6%: Wages increased 3.6 percent over the last year.

The Good

The 32,000 jobs added in June beat analyst expectations. Many of the gains were in important sectors like construction, manufacturing and natural resources. The rise in the unemployment rate is due to the addition of nearly 76,000 job seekers to the labour force which suggests that more Canadians are optimistic that they can find work due to the strong economy. Year-over-year wage growth is relatively strong at 3.6 percent.

The Bad

The aggregate job gain figures in June do not tell the whole story. Canada added only 9,100 full-time jobs in June and 22,700 part-time positions. The services sectors lost 14,700 jobs mostly because of big decreases in accommodation and food services positions. The wholesale and retail trade also had a significant decrease in jobs last month.
Additionally, the job gains only came from three provinces: Ontario, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Everywhere else the market either shed jobs or remained flat.

The Unknown

Trade uncertainties with the U.S. cast the biggest shadow over economic forecasts for the coming months. NAFTA renegotiations dominate and undermine the outlook for the export sector. This is particularly important for the non-energy sector, which has already had several industries being subjected to tariffs this year.
Additionally, these numbers were released just days before the Bank of Canada’s decision on interest rates. Analysts expect that despite the trade concerns, employment and wage growth numbers are strong enough to prompt an increase in the benchmark.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — June 2018

The Labor Department released its June jobs report which shows 213,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy – continuing the longest stretch of job growth in the nation’s history. Increased participation in the labor market brought the unemployment rate up to 4.0 percent.

The Numbers

213,000: The economy added 213,000 jobs in June.
4.0%: The unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent.
2.7%: Wages increased 2.7 percent over the last year.

The Good

The 213,000 jobs added in June beat analyst expectations. The rise in the unemployment rate by 0.2 percentage points is not bad news because it was caused by the increase in the workforce. Americans who have been sitting on the sidelines of the job market are being drawn in by the strong hiring environment.
Year over year job growth for many major sectors is impressive. In the last year, manufacturing has added 285,000 jobs; business and professional services increased by 521,000 jobs and employment in healthcare rose by 309,000.

The Bad

The tight labor market is having a negative impact on seasonal hires. The shortage of summer seasonal workers such as lifeguards is causing curtailing of services and higher wages, the cost of which may be passed onto consumers.
The U6, which is the unemployment measure that includes those too discouraged to look for work and workers in part-time jobs who want to work full-time, rose to 7.8 percent from 7.6 percent in May. The U-6 remains somewhat elevated compared to the last time unemployment was similarly low.

The Unknown

It is unclear how much the labor force can expand due to an aging population. With job openings continuing to increase, there is no clear path for how to attract those who have stayed outside the workforce in recent years.
While some hiring has been scaled back due to recently imposed tariffs and fears of a full-scale trade war, uncertainty remains regarding future commodity prices and inventory shortfalls which can have a profound effect on the nation’s economic health.