Wages and Recruitment: The Pressure is Building


The scene opens on an office with two people facing each other across a desk. The one behind the desk takes a piece of paper, and with exaggerated strokes, writes an unseen amount on it, folds the paper in half and slides it slowly across the desk. There is tension in the air. The paper is picked up, unfolded and read. The entire plot hinges on whether the amount, still invisible to the viewer, is accepted or rejected.


This performance has played out countless times in films and television. For those attempting to recruit in a tight labor market successfully, the scene may feel uncomfortably familiar. Determining the right wages at a time of record high job openings and low unemployment can seem daunting. Offering wages that are too low can repel the best talent while offering wages that are unnecessarily high can impact a company’s profitability. Understanding the causes of current wage pressures allows employers to make informed decisions that will have a positive effect on their recruitment processes.

Beyond Supply and Demand – Causes of Wage Pressure


It’s Economics 101: the cost of goods and services rises when their availability decreases. When there is low unemployment, available workers are scarce. Companies that are seeking to attract talent need to source from a limited pool of available workers as well as those who are currently working. Since the top reason that workers quit their jobs is for better pay elsewhere, companies face the dual challenge of finding the right salary to offer the workers they are trying to attract while also retaining their current employees. While this supply and demand scenario is critical to understanding wage pressure, there are other important factors at work in today’s recruiting environment.

Cost of Living


Inflation continues to remain at low levels in most major economies, but the cost of living is rising in many places due to high housing costs. This is especially true for cities that are major business and financial centers. Companies recruiting in these metropolitan areas need to factor in the current and potential future cost of living in these locations when determining their wage ranges as part of an effective recruiting strategy.

Competition from the Gig Economy


The gig economy was not a factor in wage pressure just a few years ago, but it is an integral part of today’s talent landscape. Uber, the company that pioneered this sector, surpassed 1.5 million drivers last year. Some people may choose to work in the gig economy to supplement the income from their full-time job. For others, gig work is an attractive alternative to working set hours, going to an office and having a boss. Employers that want to attract talent to fill positions need to know how their pay rate compares with those choosing to work as independent contractors by tapping on an app.

Skills Shortage


Supply and demand also come into play when there is a shortage of workers who possess the skills required by employers. Consider the example of welders in the United States. In 1988, there were about 570,000 welders compared to the 360,000 in 2012. The American Welding Society estimates a 290,000 job deficit for welders by 2020. Due to a skill shortage and increased demand, wages for welders are projected to increase at nearly double the rate of the average U.S. worker. Wage pressure resulting from skills shortages is a global issue. Employers should factor in the availability of workers with the required skills, or those that can be trained to acquire these skills, when determining pay rates.

What Wage Pressure? 


The United States and other leading economies have had sustained job growth and low unemployment for an extended period, without experiencing a corresponding substantial increase in wages. However, there are leading economists that believe that wage inflation is imminent. Employers seeking to find the best talent should take note of the current economic environment in the U.S. A recent article in Bloomberg reported that during the current economic cycle, the rate at which workers are leaving their jobs has accelerated to its highest point in the in the past six months. This is an indication that the strong labor market is giving workers the confidence that if they leave a job, another one can be found without difficulty.


The article goes on to cite The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage measure for job switchers, those who leave one employer for another, which has also rebounded to cycle highs in recent months, reaching 4.4 percent in March and 4.0 percent in April. The article goes on to note: “Seems like a good environment for workers facing stagnating real wage growth to start looking for greener pastures, forcing firms to boost compensation more aggressively to attract and retain employees.”

Relieving the Pressure on Recruitment


With so many factors to consider, how can employers determine a wage range that will attract the best talent without causing an unnecessary negative impact on profit? Companies should consider partnering their recruitment efforts with an expert, such as a recruitment process outsourcing company or RPO.  RPOs can provide information on current wage rates, the supply and demand of workers in specific markets and the ability to source and screen candidates. An RPO provides the steps to deliver the best candidates while delivering an employer the insight to offer the right wages to attract the right talent. By partnering with an RPO, an employer can leverage an understanding of wage pressure into an asset in its recruitment efforts.

Prospects for the Class of 2018

The National Center for Education Statistics estimates that approximately 1.9 million bachelor’s degrees will be awarded in the 2017-2018 academic year in the United States. These graduates will be among the millions worldwide who will be entering the job market with a degree for the first time.

A strong economy with low unemployment and robust growth projections should indicate that the graduates of the Class of 2018 have bright prospects for finding their first job after graduation. And while it is true that many graduates will benefit from the current strong demand for talent, others may face unexpected challenges. NACE, the National Association of Colleges and Employers, reports that employers plan to hire 1.3 percent fewer graduates from the Class of 2018 for U.S. positions than they did from the Class of 2017.

The study notes that volatility in just a few industries will impact the overall hiring outlook. Two industries, in particular, are driving this overall decrease: insurance firms and retail employers. Insurance firms responding to the survey projected a decrease in hires by 42 percent due to the recent natural disasters, including Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which led to high payment amounts for catastrophic losses. Retail employers plan to decrease their hires by almost 33 percent, citing the changing landscape of the industry and a lack of job openings as the key factors. 2018 marks the first decrease in this hiring projection since the Class of 2010.

Despite the obstacles that some new graduates may face, the members of the Class of 2018 in the U.S. will be entering the workforce at a time of record high job openings. Yet a study released earlier this month notes that three-quarters of this year’s graduating class do not have jobs lined up after graduation. In the current extremely competitive job market, employers hoping to attract these first-time job seekers need to understand their concerns and expectations.

Wage Pressures for 2018 Graduates

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, approximately 70 percent of college students borrow money to pay for their tuition. The average debt to a student borrower is $27,975. A significant number of candidates from the Class of 2018 will be entering the job market with student loan debts that they will seek to pay off as soon as possible. This makes compensation a major factor in choosing a job. In addition, many of the most attractive employers are located in large cities with a high cost of living. The Class of 2018 job seekers may find themselves balancing their need for a sizable paycheck with other attributes employers have to offer.

Which Majors Pay the Most?

While many students choose their field of study based on interest and applicability to their future careers, graduates of the Class of 2018 can evaluate their choices based on projections of their future earnings. In the NACE Winter 2018 Salary Report for the Class of 2018, students with engineering, computer science and math and sciences degrees are the top-paid graduates at the bachelor’s degree level.

The average starting salary for a 2018 graduate in engineering is $66,521 followed closely by those majoring in computer science at $66,005. Math and sciences majors will average $61,867. While an undergraduate degree in business was once thought of as a ticket to a high starting salary compared to a degree in social sciences and humanities, the initial average earning for business is only slightly higher for the Class of 2018. A business major can expect an average income of $56,720 while a social sciences major can plan to earn an average of $56,689 and a humanities major will average $56,688.

Global Outlook

For much of the world’s largest economies, the strong demand for talent provides a good environment for first-time job seekers. The notable exception is in much of southern and eastern Europe where youth unemployment remains high. Due to the uncertainties related to Brexit, especially regarding the free movement of labor, the Class of 2018 is potentially facing fewer options of work locations than their predecessors.

In Canada, new college graduates can use data from the recent BMO’s Regional Labour Market Report Card to help determine the best locations in which to search for jobs. Moncton, New Brunswick topped the City Labour Market Performance Rankings, increasing from a six-year low. British Columbia and Ontario are showing the strongest results for overall job market conditions by province. Local unemployment, job growth and business investment are some of the elements that contribute to the ratings provided by the report.

Australian college graduates are increasingly turning to part-time work for employment. The Guardian reported earlier this year that there is a pronounced trend towards part-time employment among graduates. Between 2008 and 2017, the proportion of employed graduates working part time increased by 17 percentage points to 38 percent of all graduates. And part-time employment is growing in Australia. In the March 2018 Australian Employment Report, part-time jobs grew while full-time jobs decreased.

UK Study with Global Implications

A study from Universities UK found that one in three graduates are mismatched to the jobs they find after leaving their university studies. While universities and students themselves can take steps to address this issue, employers need to attract the right people at the right time for the right positions. Given the amount of early attrition in much of the world’s major economies, this problem is not limited to the UK.

Finding the Perfect Match

A key element in solving this “graduate to job mismatch” is in the recruitment process itself.  Take a moment to consider what attributes a new graduate should have to be an ideal candidate for your company. How can you know if these ideal candidates exist? And if they do exist, how can you successfully compete with other companies to attract them?

What steps do you need to take to increase the chances that it will be your job offer that is accepted and not one of your competitors? If the answers to these questions are not addressed in your current recruitment process, it may be time to turn to an expert. Enterprises that have shown success in the delivery of products and services should consider turning to a Recruitment Process Outsourcing (RPO) company to provide the needed expertise to attract the millions of new graduates coming into the job market this year. And with many graduates receiving their degrees this month and job markets tighter than they have been in years, the time to act is now.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis – May 2018

The Labor Department released its May Jobs Report showing 223,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy, which continues the longest stretch of job growth in the nation’s history and brings the unemployment rate to 3.8 percent.

The Numbers

223,000: The economy added 223,000 jobs in May.
3.8%: The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent.
2.7%: Wages increased 2.7 percent over the last year.

The Good

The 223,000 jobs added in May surpassed analyst expectations and lowered the unemployment rate to 3.8 percent. Employment grew in industries including healthcare, retail and construction. The Labor Department revised its figures to show a show a net increase of 15,000 in March and April.
There was good news for Americans without a high school diploma. The unemployment rate for workers 25-years-old and older with less than a high-school diploma dropped to 5.4 percent, down from 6.2 percent at the same time last year and a large decrease from the 8.5 percent rate in September 2016. The unemployment rate for college graduates is holding steady at 2.0 percent.

The Bad

Employers face significant challenges in a market with increasing job openings and very low unemployment. More workers are quitting their jobs, which increases the pressure on employers to take immediate action to both attract and retain talent.
The employment gains made by those with less than a high school diploma may increase the difficulty of staffing seasonal summer jobs, an issue already caused by overall low unemployment. The scarcity of workers for seasonal businesses could lead to higher costs for business owners who may pass the increased costs onto consumers.

The Unknown

There is uncertainty over the repercussions of the recently imposed tariffs on key U.S. allies. The White House announced that the EU, Canada and Mexico will face 25 percent tariffs on steel and 10 percent on aluminum. Retaliation could lead to increased prices and unstable supplies of key commodities, which may stall or reverse the job gains made in recent years.

How to Create a Workforce Equipped with the Skills of the Future

Automation is transforming the way we work. The World Economic Forum calls this change the Fourth Industrial Revolution which is characterized by a “fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital and biological spheres.” In short, technology is disrupting nearly every industry, at a pace that has never happened before.

This pace of change means that employers need to take a proactive role in ensuring they have a workforce equipped with the skills of the future in order to avoid skills gaps. To accomplish this, employers first need to understand the skills they will need to remain competitive and innovative. Then, they need to understand how best to prepare and train their current workforce, as well as prepare to source, recruit and hire the talent of the future. In this post, we’ll share the top skills of the future, how technology is changing the way we work and explore ways organizations can prepare for the workforce of the future.

Skills of the Future

According to the World Economic Forum, the top ten skills you need to thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution have shifted in the last several years, prioritising complex problem solving, critical thinking and creativity as the top three skills and adding emotional intelligence to the list.

The following ten skills are listed as the most in demand for employers:

  1. Complex problem solving
  2. Critical thinking
  3. Creativity
  4. People management
  5. Coordinating with others
  6. Emotional intelligence
  7. Judgment and decision making
  8. Service orientation
  9. Negotiation
  10. Cognitive flexibility

This list reflects the fact that robots can complete many tasks faster than humans, but the machines still lack soft skills like creativity and emotional intelligence. As technology takes on more of the workload, the most in-demand employees will be those who possess the skills that computers cannot replicate. However, the need also increases for workers who have the skills to use, build and innovate the technology of the future.

Automation is Changing the Way We Work

It’s no secret that automation is fundamentally changing the way many industries operate, increasing the demand for tech and digital skills in the workforce. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, as many as 375 million people around the world will need to change occupational categories by 2030 due to automation.

Let’s explore this idea using the example of the impact of automation on the automobile industry. Some of the most well-known innovations in automation have happened in the industry – starting with Henry Ford’s assembly line. Now, companies around the world are racing to bring autonomous cars to market. The link to the potential disruption in complementary industries from delivery services to drive-through restaurants is overwhelming. However, it is an excellent example to use to illustrate the complexity of the skills needed for the future.

The skills required to deliver the cars to market are both highly technical and analytical.  However, the skills needed to design and operate the vehicles of the future are more complicated. Skills in design thinking and innovation will be critical. Programmers will need to ensure safety in weather conditions from blizzards to heavy rains and navigate autonomous cars and trucks through road construction and complicated intersections and interchanges.  They may be faced with programming life and death decision-making into the vehicles, which are inherently complex human behaviours requiring emotional and social intelligence skills above all others.

How to Prepare the Future Workforce

The Transformation of Talent

Automation and the skills transformation will affect many industries over the next decade, but lessons can be learned from the industries that have already come through the journey, transforming their workforce in order to deliver to a new business model. This transformation is illustrated with an example of one of PeopleScout’s clients, a company which provides research and risk management services.

The company began migrating customers from the traditional print version of their core product to an online version available on multiple platforms. This was a complicated and highly-involved transformation which impacted everyone from their internal workforce to their heavily print-dependent end-user. To illustrate the skills transformation that occurred, since that point in time, the number of technology hires PeopleScout makes for this client has increased 500 percent. This includes roles like product analysts, product managers and implementation consultants. At the same time, hires for editorial roles like editors, journalists and content developers have increased only 14 percent. And, 100 percent of editorial roles filled were for their online research product; no positions filled were for the traditional print product.

In order to help guide this client through their talent transformation, PeopleScout worked closely with the internal HR function to adapt their candidate personas for both external hiring and internal mobility. We then developed sophisticated sourcing strategies to source candidates with skill sets that would meet the needs of the new organization. In addition to sourcing new candidates internally and externally, there were also efforts to analyze which traditional roles had transferrable skills to the requirements of the new roles. This was a journey to take a traditional business and transform it into a technology company and substantially shifting the workforce to meet the new strategy.

Future Skill Degree Programs

Another way employers can prepare for the future workforce is through working closely with high schools, colleges, universities, apprenticeships and graduate recruitment programs to help develop degree programs that meet the skills of the future. By building these programs, employers can ensure that graduates have the skills necessary to succeed in the coming years.

The importance of high school programs is not yet as obvious as those in higher education, but many businesses and universities have started working with high schools to source and attract new talent early. The programs are particularly significant in industries where there is a forecasted talent gap. For example, Monte Sant’ Angelo Mercy students in Sydney have the opportunity to partner with an engineering company to learn valuable job skills and open up thinking about new career pathways.

I recently participated in a panel discussion with other industry leaders as well as a professor at a university in Sydney. The professor shared that the university spent time with CEOs and business leaders asking them what skills they felt their organizations needed to ensure their business was successful in the future. As a result of those conversations, the university created a highly-innovative, cross-disciplinary degree program designed to produce students with skills that include high-level critical thinking, future scenario building and innovation, as well as many other skills identified in the World Economic Forum top ten list.

However, in the first year of the program, they had minimal applicants. Why would such an innovative and carefully-designed degree have so little applicants? More work may need to be done to ensure that parents and students are fully educated on the necessary skill sets to be successful in the future of work.

How to Prepare your Current Workforce

Employers cannot simply wait for the workforce of tomorrow to arrive. To stay ahead, it is necessary to train and prepare current workers for these shifts. To make this a priority, HR and the C-suite need to be aligned on what roles will be needed in the next three, five or ten years, as well as what skills will be needed to fill those roles. The roles that exist now may transform or disappear altogether, and new skill sets will be necessary for the business to drive growth and strategy. Both need to be open-minded about the transferrable skills in order to ensure success in having the talent to deliver key business outcomes.

Reskilling Programs

In some countries, governments have taken on some of the burden of reskilling. For example, the Australian government has established the Skilling Australians Fund which provides $1.5 billion to support apprenticeships, traineeships and other employer-related training. The goal is to retrain more Australian workers with the skills needed in the tourism, hospitality, health, engineering, manufacturing, building and construction, agriculture and digital technologies industries. The program is targeted toward automotive workers who lost jobs due to closing car manufacturing plants.

In the United Kingdom, the government plans to spend as much as 500 million pounds per year on worker training to combat low productivity. According to Reuters, the spending could reach as high as nearly 6 billion pounds on academic and technical education which will transform the system of technical education and increase the amount of training available by more than 50 percent.

Moving forward, governments could also potentially track metrics around reskilling opportunities as well as metrics for job creation in order to drive these initiatives even further forward.

How an RPO Provider Can Help Prepare for the Skills of the Future

An RPO provider can be a valuable partner for employers looking to prepare their workforces for the skills of the future. RPO providers can help organizations adapt their candidate personas, to ensure they are sourcing talent with the necessary skills and identifying new ways to target candidates who fit these personas. In addition, they can work with internal HR departments to demonstrate how candidates who may not have an exact profile for a role have the transferrable skills to be successful.

An RPO can also help build graduate and internship recruitment programs and partner with schools and government programs to find candidates from new sources with new skills.

An experienced RPO provider can also help you build your talent pool from within your own company, by consulting to develop an internal reskilling program and helping reevaluate your current positions and workforce mix to ensure your organization is targeting the right talent.

To stay ahead in the rapidly changing talent landscape, employers should evaluate their current workforce needs, the skills they have within their current employee talent pool and seek out an RPO provider who can act as a partner in sourcing, recruiting and training employees with the skills of the future.

Considerations When Sourcing Talent Globally

As the mobility of the global workforce increases, more employers are looking for the best talent from around the world. Multiple factors contribute to this increased mobility, and employers armed with the knowledge and expertise needed to navigate global recruitment will hire and retain the best workers in the competitive talent landscape.

One contributing factor is the growing economic prosperity in many areas around the world. The U.S. is experiencing record low unemployment rates, and job growth in Australia has maintained a strong pace. In countries with low unemployment, many employers are looking outside their borders for the best talent. Additionally, workers in countries with high unemployment rates are increasingly willing to relocate for challenging and fulfilling work.

Technology is making the process easier. Video interviewing makes it simple to interview candidates without incurring large travel bills, and virtual reality technology could give candidates a realistic look at your office without an international flight. A variety of solutions for virtual work could mean that the perfect candidate won’t even need to travel to fulfill a job’s requirements.

In this article, we’ll cover the value of sourcing globally and some of the common compliance challenges including immigration, background checks and data privacy and labor laws. Then, we’ll examine some significant cultural issues, including writing job titles and job descriptions, social media, communication styles and office culture. Finally, we’ll cover how to handle the office politics that emerge when starting a global sourcing program and how an RPO partner can help.

The Value of Sourcing Globally

A diverse global workforce can improve your employer brand. As the world becomes more globalized, candidates look for employers who provide the opportunity to work internationally, and the opportunity to work with people from around the world. Diverse workforces also increase productivity and employee engagement.

Through global sourcing, you also expand your talent pool and increase your potential of finding the right candidate with the skills to meet your needs. As employers look to hire candidates with the skills of the future, expanding your search across the globe can keep you ahead of the competition. In industries with large skills gaps like healthcare and engineering, the ability to source globally is necessary to remain competitive.

If you are planning to expand globally, global sourcing can also help support those plans; whether you’re looking to open an office in a new country or hiring a sales team that can build inroads for your company, a global workforce is valuable for international expansions.
Employers can also see other benefits including:

  • Increased ability to source candidates with the skills of the future
  • Increased internal culture and a sense of community
  • Greater cultural literacy in the workforce
  • Increased creativity
  • Diverse language skills

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT GLOBAL RECRUITMENT PROCESS OUTSOURCING

Buyer’s Guide to Global RPO

Managing Compliance Challenges

Immigration

Starting a global sourcing program does come with challenges, the most obvious of which is immigration. If you are hiring foreign employees to work domestically, you need to abide by the immigration laws in your country, which can be complicated by shifting political climates. In general, the immigration process can add cost to hiring foreign workers. However, you may find that foreign workers are more open to relocation that you expect.

Background Checks and Data Privacy

Throughout the hiring process, you’ll also have to contend with varying background check and data privacy laws. The EU General Data Privacy Regulation, commonly known as the GDPR, protects the data and privacy of all EU citizens and applies to organizations that collect the personal data of EU citizens, regardless of where those organizations are located. If you are considering candidates located within the EU, your hiring process must be compliant with the GDPR.

Additionally, countries around the world have different laws that regulate how you can contact candidates through email. The requirements for CAN-SPAM in the U.S., CASL in Canada and the SPAM Act in Australia all have different requirements and different penalties. Employers should ensure they are compliant with these laws before contacting candidates in other countries.

Labor Laws

If employers are hiring workers in other countries as part of an effort to open a new office or enter into a new market, they should also be aware of the differences in labor laws that apply. For instance, in Australia, employees are entitled to long service leave, or a period of extended paid leave from work after a long period of working for the same employer. The exact requirements vary based on jurisdiction, but are in general, six to 13 weeks of leave for every seven to 10 years worked.

Family leave can also vary from country to country. In the UK for example, women on maternity leave are entitled to 90 percent of pay for the first six weeks of their leave and a flat rate for a further 33 weeks. Men are also entitled to paternity leave for one or two weeks at a flat rate. Though the length of time and the amount of pay may vary, most countries outside of the U.S. have some requirements for maternity or parental leave.

Some countries have laws that dictate how and when employees must be paid. One of the more unique cases is the thirteenth salary, which is legally required in some countries, including Brazil. Under the law, employees who work for an organization for a full calendar year are entitled to an additional one-month salary, usually paid in two installments in November and December. Thirteenth salary is also a common practice in some European countries, but it is legally required in multiple South American countries, including Argentina and Uruguay.

Differences in Office Cultures

In addition to compliance challenges, employers should also be prepared to manage the cultural differences that exist in recruiting, hiring and work cultures around the globe. While a cultural mistake isn’t likely to result in a fine or other legal consequence, it can cause other problems. A lack of cultural literacy can lead to anything from communication confusion during the hiring process to a negative impact on your employer brand that will make it more difficult to recruit top talent.

Writing Job Titles and Job Descriptions

As you start the hiring process, you first want to make sure you’re using job titles and writing job descriptions that will appeal to global candidates. The wrong job title could mean that few qualified candidates even find your job posting. For example, the title “engineer” can refer to a variety of skills and a large range of experience depending on the country and industry where you are hiring. Other common titles like “secretary” or “representative” can indicate high paying and powerful positions in one country or entry-level positions in another.

Once you establish the right job title, it’s also important to write a job description that will attract your desired candidates. In some countries, candidates view job descriptions as a near exact outline of the work they would do in that position. In other countries, candidates may expect more flexibility depending on their skills. Additionally, some phrases may discourage global applicants. For instance, “must have a college degree” could prevent some global candidates from applying. The meaning of “college,” “university” and even “high school” can vary from country to country. You should include equivalent experience and educational requirements for each country you’re recruiting candidates in.

Social Media

It’s also important to understand the role social media plays in a candidate’s country. In the U.S., candidates are used to employers searching and reviewing posts on public social media pages. Candidates in other countries may not have this expectation. Additionally, some countries will have different social media sites instead of or in addition to the common Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter. For example, in China, western social media platforms are banned, and Weibo, WeChat and Youku are popular. Additionally, social media sites can have varied relevance in a job search from country to country.

Communication Styles

It’s also important to understand different communication styles that are common around the world and how those influence interviews, negotiations and even contracts or lack thereof. The Harvard Business Review gives several examples of varying cultural business norms listed below:

  • In Russia, disagreement is expressed strongly and openly, and a negotiation that starts with a strong disagreement can be a positive sign.
  • In Mexico, it is uncommon to clearly voice strong disagreement, but emotional expression is a sign of honesty.
  • In countries like Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, open disagreement is good, but it should be expressed without emotion.
  • In China, trust is built through relationships rather than a business perspective.
  • In Indonesia, it is rude to look someone in the eyes and say no to a request.
  • In Japan, it is common to iron out potential challenges informally before a meeting, so there is not debate during a formal meeting.
  • In America and Northern Europe, it is common to put everything in writing, from recapping a meeting to a full contract, but some African, Middle Eastern and Asian countries, the same process can be a sign of distrust or disrespect.
Office Culture

There are other cultural differences related to the workday that you may have to address. In the U.S., overtime is common, and full-time workers are often expected to work eight-hour days, five days each week. In other countries, like Brazil, the work week is capped at 40 or 44 hours, depending on how many days a week the person works. French workers have a “right to disconnect” after hours, and in Sweden, fika, or a mid-morning break for coffee and snacks, is common. While some of these differences are legal issues, others will shape candidate expectations about the work environment. Employers need to understand and prepare for how these different approaches to the workday will play out at their organizations.

Understanding Office Politics

As an organization begins a global sourcing process, it should not overlook the importance of internal communications, office politics and training. Change can be difficult, and it is best to be proactive. Whether a company is opening a new office in another country, recruiting foreign workers to work virtually or sponsoring visas for candidates who wish to immigrate, employers should prepare for how all employees handle the change.

Employers should train all employees, regardless of location about the different cultural workplace differences that could impact workers. It’s important that the training is for all workers so that some employees don’t feel singled out. The process should teach new workers and existing employees about each other, how the business operates and any changes that they can expect.

Some expressions and phrases have different meanings in the same language, depending on where it is spoken. It is important to those communications across borders and cultures to be aware of these differences. For example, in the United States, to “table” usually means to postpone or suspend consideration of a pending motion. In the rest of the English-speaking world, such as in the United Kingdom and Canada, to “table” means to begin consideration (or reconsideration) of a proposal.

Employers should also be prepared for fears from current employees about replacement or outsourcing. It can be a delicate conversation, but it is an important step to help retain employees. Organizations should work with their leadership and internal communications teams to frame the conversations about changes in the workplace. HR should also review conflict management best practices to ensure that any issues that develop between employees can be mediated before they come to a head.

Finding a Partner

As employers look to start global sourcing programs, it is important to look for an RPO partner who has deep experience with international programs and who understands the part of the world where you are looking to expand or source candidates. Your partner should help you navigate the compliance and cultural issues that accompany any global sourcing program. While some local labor laws deal with issues that happen after the hiring process, remember that they can have implications during the hiring process too. An RPO provider can help prepare you for many of the challenges before you post a job or extend an offer. Additionally, a partner with years of experience can help you anticipate any communication and training issues so that you can tackle the issues head-on.

Positive Global Economic Growth and Its Impact on Talent Acquisition

According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Economic Update, global economic activity continues to trend upward. Global production is estimated to have grown by 3.7 percent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage point faster than projected and half a percentage point higher than in 2016. Global growth has been broad-based, with exceptional growth in Europe and Asia. As a result of better than projected growth in 2017, global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have adjusted from 0.2 to 3.9 percent. The adjustment reflects amplified global growth momentum.

Positive economic growth numbers affect both large, multinational and small, regional organizations’ demand for and ability to recruit talent. To stay competitive in the battle for talent, organizations need to understand current economic trends and the effect they have on the labor market. In this post, we cover the impact of global growth on labor markets, how workforce planning can help organizations navigate growth and the need for flexible global talent acquisition programs to manage fluctuations in hiring needs.

Strong Global Economic Recovery and Increased Competition for Talent

While the global economy continues to grow steadily, the working-age population has stagnated. According to a demographic analysis conducted by the Wall Street Journal, by 2050, the global population will grow by 32 percent; however, the working-age population will increase by only 26 percent, a 6 percent drop off.

What’s more, in advanced nations, the working-age population will decrease by 26 percent, while according to the U.N., middle-income nations will see it rise 23 percent. Shrinking labor markets and talent pools will become a serious challenge in many major economies as labor market shortages could reach heights unseen in decades, especially in the U.S., Japan, UK and countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

Labor shortages cause increased competition for talent. Thanks to steady economic growth, organizations are on better financial footing than during the recession. Financial stability can lead to more investments in expansion and product development; however, skills and labor shortages can be stifling to growth.

This reality necessitates that business leaders reassess how they attract, develop and retain their organization’s talent. Below, we list a few ways organizations can help bridge the talent gap as well as ways they can mitigate the effects of talent shortages:

  • Organizations should encourage recruiting teams to source from diverse demographic groups to find talent.
  • Organizations should look to cultivate a strong talent pipeline consisting of passive and active candidates to nurture and engage when vacancies arise.
  • If possible, organizations should partner with local governments to invest in infrastructure, technology, education and training programs to help underqualified and less-educated workers improve their employability for the jobs of the future.

Planning for Talent Acquisition to Accommodate Economic Growth

Economic growth is transforming global businesses and the international talent landscape. Technological advances, further globalization of markets, changing demographic trends and increased competition are changing the way organizations see talent acquisition in virtually every industry. To stay ahead of talent shortages and increased competition for candidates, organizations should take proactive steps, including integrating workforce planning into their business planning process.

Workforce planning is a process used to align the needs of an organization with those of its workforce to ensure it can meet compliance, service and production requirements. Workforce planning can help organizations analyze their current workforce, determine future workforce needs and identify the gaps between the current and future workforce. The workforce planning process should include stakeholders from multiple departments of the organization collaborating closely together to establish organizational goals and the talent needs to support them.

Essential components of workforce planning include:

Workforce Demand Planning

Workforce demand planning involves taking into account the key mission, goals and future objectives set by an organization’s leadership and assessing the current workforce to determine if it is well-aligned enough to achieve them.

Estimating the Labor Pool

Estimating the labor pool entails researching the supply and availability of labor and comparing the talent supply with an organization’s talent demands from both internal and external sources.

Managing the Gaps

Managing the gaps requires that the HR department establish tactics to proactively resolve issues that may arise between workforce demand and supply. This ensures that positions vital to achieving previously outlined goals can be filled in the face of labor shortages.

Economic Growth and Increased Competition Demand Flexibility in Talent Acquisition Tactics and Strategy

A competitive labor market and rapid innovation are spurring a need to reinvest in recruiting. More frequently, organizations are turning to talent acquisition experts such as recruitment process outsourcing (RPO) providers. The global RPO market grew by 17 percent in 2015, according to Everest Group, a consulting and research firm. The majority of global RPO growth is attributed to new deal activity, which grew at a rate of more than 18 percent from 2015 to 2016 and continues to trend upward.

For high-growth organizations, an RPO provider offers the benefit of a consultative partnership where the provider acts as extension of an organization’s HR department to supplement and amplify recruiting resources. Throughout the engagement, RPO providers work to transform recruitment processes to help the client reach its long-term hiring and business goals. Experienced RPO providers embrace a mix of talent acquisition strategies, technology and emerging recruiting techniques to source and hire talent. Moreover, an RPO provider with experience hiring talent globally can leverage data to determine the best global talent markets to source talent from. The provider will also use global employment data and trends to design strategies that will attract talent to a client’s organization.

RPO solutions provide scalability and flexibility to organizations by outsourcing the entire or parts of the recruitment process to an external provider. An RPO provider scales its team according to a client’s unique needs, deploying more resources for high-volume hiring periods and recalling resources when hiring slows. An RPO provider’s experienced team of recruiters, use of cutting-edge recruiting technology and recruitment marketing tactics make it well-equipped to handle scalable hiring needs. Because of the flexible nature of RPO programs, providers can better navigate fluctuating hiring demands.

Contingent and Gig Workers

Organizations that wish to develop a more agile talent management strategy and position themselves for future growth are adopting a more scalable and fluid approach to recruitment, with contingent hiring at it its core. Research conducted by Ernst & Young (EY) revealed that organizations are increasingly embracing gig and contingent workers as a means of adapting to rapid growth and the changing nature of work. Contingent and gig hires are not a fad. In fact, 40 percent of respondents to the study expect to use contingent labor in the years ahead.

From the employer perspective, the uptick in temporary hiring and the growing utilization of gig economy workers has provided substantial benefits. Below, we list a few of the benefits reported in the EY research:

  • Contingent hiring helps organizations better control labor costs by setting prescribed budget limits.
  • Organizations are more flexible in the skills sets and expertise they hire for.
  • Contingent labor provides organizations with the ability to rapidly respond to changes in demand for labor.

To manage contingent workforce needs, organizations can turn to managed service providers (MSP) programs to support gig, temporary, temp-to-hire, direct hire, independent contractor (1099) administration and other needs.

Benefits of Engaging a Managed Service Provider:

  • An MSP program delivers immediate ROI by analyzing an organization’s total spend and identifying ways to optimize and drive cost savings.
  • MSPs set baseline performance metrics to track improvements and quantify business issues, such as the cost of turnover and the lost productivity that follows. This provides clients with a real-time view of costs and areas for improvement and savings.
  • MSPs not only manage staffing suppliers and services spend but also work to streamline operations to scale and match growth cycles.

Conclusion

As the global economy continues to grow and the demand and competition for talent rises as a result, organizations need to stay abreast of the scope of talent available on the market. Talent acquisition specialists have adapted to the changes in global workforce trends and are equipped to provide organizations with the expertise and resources needed to navigate an ever-changing and challenging talent landscape.

PeopleScout U.S. Jobs Report Analysis — April 2018

The Labor Department released its April jobs report with 164,000 jobs added to the U.S. economy, continuing the longest stretch of job growth in the nation’s history and bringing the unemployment rate to 3.9 percent – the lowest level since 1970.


The Numbers

164,000: The economy added 164,000 jobs in April.
3.9%: The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent.
2.6%: Wages increased 2.6 percent over the last year.

The Good

The 164,000 jobs added this month may have been less than some analysts projected, according to the Wall Street Journal, but April’s job growth brought the unemployment rate down to 3.9 percent after it held steady for six months. Revised figures show employers added 30,000 more jobs in February and March than previously estimated, bringing the monthly pace of hiring this year to 200,000, compared to the 2017 average of 182,000 jobs per month.


The strongest gains continue to be in the professional and business services sector, which added 54,000 jobs in April. With that, the total number of jobs added in this sector in the last year rose to more than half of a million. Manufacturing also continued to grow with 245,000 jobs added in the last year. The healthcare industry also continued its consistent growth, adding 24,000 jobs in April, and 305,000 in the last year.
Wage growth continued, but at a modest rate of 2.6 percent over last year. While many workers would like to see higher gains, the modest growth is appealing to investors and eases fears about the economy overheating.

The Bad

Unlike the areas of the economy which showed healthy job increases in April, some industries saw little change over the last month – including construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality and government work.
The U.S. workforce shed 410,000 people in April, bringing the total of those out of the workforce to 95.7 million. The tightening labor market brings significant challenges to employers, including potential wage pressure and a diminishing pool of available talent, according to the Washington Post.

The Unknown

Uncertainty over the imposition of tariffs on China and other countries makes long-term planning and growth projections very challenging, the New York Times reports. The possible shift in the price of raw materials resulting from a trade war would likely have the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector.

Predictive Analytics: A Powerful Talent Acquisition Tool

In this tightening talent market with unemployment rates at record lows, predictive analytics is emerging as an essential AI tool for employers looking to stay ahead of the competition. Applications of artificial intelligence are transforming the talent acquisition process. As an AI tool, predictive analytics allows employers to use the power of data to make predictions about candidates and drive efficiencies throughout the entire talent acquisition process.

What is Predictive Analytics?

Predictive analytics is a type of data analytics that uses data to find patterns and then uses those models to attempt to predict the future. Predictive analytics can’t tell you what will happen, but it shows what is likely to happen based on past trends. It’s as close as employers can get to predicting the future.

The ability to make these predictions helps shorten the entire recruiting process while making stronger hires. In a competitive talent market, this allows employers to identify the top talent for a particular role and make an offer to the best candidates faster than the competition. For employers, this results in improvements in time-to-hire and quality-of-hire, and for candidates, it builds a better experience, leaving a positive impression that will factor into their decision to accept an offer.

Using Predictive Analytics to Improve Sourcing

During the sourcing process, predictive analytics models can identify stronger candidates more quickly and accurately than traditional methods. AI sourcing that uses predictive models can provide recruiters with a solid slate of candidates as soon as a requisition is opened, giving the recruiter a strong head start to fill the role. An AI sourcing solution that uses predictive analytics modeling can also provide the recruiter with information about how well the candidate matches the job opening and how likely the candidate is to leave their current role. With this information, recruiters are able to work more quickly and efficiently, filling the role with the best talent in less time. In the end, it saves companies time and money.

To roll out a predictive analytics sourcing tool, employers first need to establish what makes a good hire. This requires looking back into data from previous hires that demonstrates how well those hires performed. This step is critical because employers may find that the factors that predict success are not what they thought. For instance, when filling certain roles, employers may prioritize candidates with advanced degrees. However, data may show that an advanced degree is not a reliable predictor of success. Instead, industry experience or high scores on a pre-employment assessment may better predict the success of a candidate.

Once an employer has the data to identify qualities that predict success, the predictive analytics technology that’s part of an AI sourcing tool can use that information to identify candidates who match that criteria. The technology can scour social media sites, job boards, talent communities and networking and career sites to find the best talent. Using available data, the tool will make predictions about the candidate, and the recruiter can use those predictions to determine which candidates to target for more personalized communication.

As recruiters use the predictive analytics tool, they constantly feed more data into the system. This means that over time, the technology is able to learn more and make even more accurate predictions about candidate success. At PeopleScout, AI sourcing using predictive analytics is a key component of AffinixTM, our proprietary talent technology.

When implementing a predictive analytics sourcing tool, there are a few important considerations to ensure success. The first is making sure that data you use is good, accurate data. You need accurate information about previous hires, including pre- and post-hire information. Since an RPO is only engaged through the hiring and onboarding process, if you’re using an RPO to manage your talent acquisition, it’s important to share post-hire data that demonstrates whether the candidate made a strong employee. Knowing about performance or employee tenure will make predictive analytics tools more powerful. To make that data work for you, it is key that you share that post-hire data with your RPO partner.

Using Predictive Analytics to Make Your Recruitment Funnel More Efficient

In addition to sourcing, predictive analytics can be used throughout the entire recruitment process to drive efficiencies in an employer’s recruitment funnel. A recruitment funnel encompasses all of the steps between when a candidate applies for a position until that candidate is hired. At different steps in the recruitment funnel, candidates will either be eliminated from consideration or move along in the process.

For instance, in a recruitment funnel, an employer may receive 100 applications. During the initial resume screen, a portion of those candidates will be eliminated. After a phone screen, more candidates will be eliminated. The process continues until there is one candidate left and the employer makes the hire.

By analyzing the recruitment funnel, you can work backward to learn how many applicants are necessary to make one hire. To accomplish this, you need multiple data points from a large number of hires. The more data you have, the better and more accurate a prediction will be. That data will give you an understanding of what your recruitment funnel looks like now, and from there, predictive analytics technology can make the process more efficient, which means you would need fewer applicants to hire the right candidate. That turns into decreased time-to-fill and cost-per-hire, while increasing the quality-of-hire.

As in the souring process addressed above, you need to start by evaluating and analyzing existing data. Again, this is a process where the quality of the data will determine the outcome. By analyzing data about factors that can predict successful hires, the predictive analytics tool will learn what qualities make for a strong hire. Like in the sourcing process, the data may tell a story that you don’t expect about what makes a good employee. For instance, you may expect your strongest hires to come from a specific degree program at a nearby university, so you spend significant time and money recruiting those graduates. A predictive analytics tool could help identify other university programs that produce candidates who also match your hiring needs.

With the data about candidate success, you can tailor the entire application process. If the best candidates come from certain sources – job boards, employee referral programs, etc. – you can target your recruitment marketing spend to connect with those candidates and decrease or eliminate advertising that doesn’t yield strong results. When you start with stronger candidates, you need fewer applicants to make a quality hire.

Predictive Analytics Considerations

You should also ensure that your RPO partner uses a technology that is programmed to prevent discrimination and has external checks in place to be sure that isn’t taking place. The technology cannot take factors like gender, race or disability into account as it combs the web for candidates, as this could violate anti-discrimination laws. Additionally, you must take care that the technology does not learn biases from the people who use it. When used correctly, predictive analytics technology can help eliminate discrimination from the recruiting process. It is important to look at variables like race and gender to measure potential bias, but the technology should not use that information to target or exclude candidates. To help prevent discrimination, combining the technology with the intelligence of the recruiter is the differentiator.

Finding a Partner

When looking for a predictive analytics technology solution, it is important to work with a partner with deep expertise of not only the technology but the entire talent landscape. You should look for an RPO provider that can respond to the unique challenges of your industry and that has an end-to-end technology solution that can be customized to your needs.

In an industry-leading technology solution, predictive analytics should be integrated throughout the entire process so that you’re able to harness the full power of the data. If your data analytics tool in the sourcing process operates independently of the data analytics tool that operates later in your recruiting funnel, you risk losing valuable insights. PeopleScout’s Affinix combines the best recruitment technology in the industry, and fully integrates the entire process. With Affinix, our clients get the most out of their data.

When working with an RPO provider, employers will also benefit from the data that the RPO has across its entire client base and in your industry. You can use that data to benchmark and improve your own programs. To get the most out of the partnership, it is important to work out an agreement where you share post-hire data with your RPO provider. Data is valuable, and good data is what makes a predictive analytics program successful. Sharing data with your partner ensures you have the strongest possible souring and recruitment solution.

Predictive analytics should be a part of an overall talent acquisition program and a complete technology solution. To stay ahead in a tight talent market, employers should use the power of data to make better hires, faster.

Rural Healthcare: How to Recruit and Attract Clinical Talent in Rural Areas

Healthcare providers in rural areas face unique obstacles when it comes to recruiting and retaining clinical talent. The growing shortage of nurses and physicians coupled with declining rural populations makes it more challenging than ever for rural healthcare organizations to attract physicians, nurses and other specialized clinical professionals. In this post, we cover the healthcare recruitment challenges faced by rural healthcare organizations and actionable advice on how to overcome them with smart talent acquisition strategies.

Rural Healthcare Challenges

Modern Healthcare reports that 77% of rural counties in America are experiencing shortages of primary care physicians, and the number of surgeons practicing in rural counties has decreased by 21%. What’s more, the Council of State Governments reports that more than 60% of areas experiencing nursing shortages are located in rural regions. Recruiting and retaining clinical professionals in these underserved rural communities remains a significant challenge for states and county governments and healthcare organizations. Economic, educational, professional and cultural dynamics affect the clinical talent shortages in rural areas including the following factors:

  • Many universities and institutions of higher learning are located in more urban regions, limiting rural healthcare organizations recent graduate talent pool.
  • Access to professional development and education programs may be limited in rural areas which can discourage candidates looking to further their career training and education.
  • Candidates with experience working in urban areas may not be prepared for or willing to adapt to the culture and lifestyle changes inherent with living in rural communities.
  • Rural healthcare organizations may not have enough opportunities for career advancement within the organization.
  • Rural healthcare organizations often face understaffing leading to increased workloads, extended shifts and less scheduling flexibility.
  • Urban healthcare organizations may be able to offer more competitive salaries, benefits and better working conditions.
  • Rural communities may offer fewer career opportunities for spouses and children of candidates.

Recruiting Strategies for Rural Healthcare Organizations

To overcome healthcare recruiting challenges, rural healthcare organizations need to employ various strategies focused on attracting and retaining clinical talent. Below, we list four approaches rural healthcare organizations can utilize to source, hire and retain clinical talent.

Dig Deeper

How RPO Can Solve The Top Challenges In Healthcare Talent Acquisition

Recruit Foreign-Born Talent

Rural healthcare providers should not limit their talent search locally. Federal programs like Conrad State 30 allow a state’s health department to request J-1 Visa waivers for a maximum of 30 foreign-born physicians per year. For foreign-born physicians to be accepted into the program, they must agree to work in a Health Professional Shortage Area or Medically Underserved Area. Healthcare organizations located in one of these federally designated areas can reach out to their state’s health department and request J-1 Visa recipients be sent to their facility if they display sufficient need.

Non-immigrant H-1B Visas can also be used to fill clinical employment gaps for rural healthcare organizations. H-1B Visas are employer-sponsored and are reserved for “specialty occupations,” including medical doctors, nurses and physical therapists. H-1B visas are issued for three years and can be extended to six years depending on circumstance.

While exact H-1B Visa requirements vary by state and each state is given some flexibility in determining program rules, all of the following are required by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services:

  • The recipient must have a full-time contract for employment as a direct care healthcare worker in a region designated as a Health Professional Shortage Area, Medically Underserved Area or a Medically Underserved Population.
  • A firm commitment from an international medical graduate to begin employment within 90-days of receiving a visa waiver.
  • Three years of employment, specifically in H-1B temporary worker status, with the sponsoring employer.
  • A no-objection letter from the visa recipient’s home country if the talent exchange was subsidized by the home government.

Offer Recent Graduates Loan-Repayment Assistance    

According to Debt.org, more than 76% of medical school graduates exit school with average $189,000, in student loan debt. What’s more, 47% of graduates owed $200,000 loans and 13% owed more than $300,000. Rural healthcare organizations can attract these young clinical professionals by offering loan repayment programs and incentives. If a rural healthcare organization is unable to afford its a loan repayment program, there are multiple state and federal programs designated to assist rural healthcare organizations. Below, we list three long-standing federally subsidized loan repayment incentive programs:

Maintain a Steady Candidate Pipeline

The healthcare talent shortage has placed a premium on clinical healthcare workers. Rural healthcare organizations have to reconcile the fact that some of their talent may be lured away by offers from competitors in more attractive locations. To stay ahead of talent attrition, rural healthcare organizations need to build and maintain a verdant candidate pipeline. Below we share strategies on how to build and cultivate relationships with potential candidates:

  • Healthcare organizations should position themselves as rural training sites for medical students, primary care residents, nurses and other clinical roles looking to experience healthcare in a rural setting.
  • Staff members should be encouraged to network and cultivate a rapport with potential candidates at medical conferences, professional development workshops, networking events and trade shows.
  • Recruit traveling nurses, physicians and locum tenens clinical professionals who may also be on the lookout for permanent practice opportunities.
  • Recruiters for rural healthcare organizations should be provided with subscriptions to candidate sourcing services and encouraged to reach out to candidates who have experience working in rural healthcare.

Sell the Community to Candidates

Many candidates may have preconceived notions regarding rural communities — and not all of them positive. To assuage a candidate’s doubts about working and living in a rural setting, it is important for healthcare organizations to highlight the strengths and positive attributes of their community. Recruiters can point to the lower cost of living in the community and how that can make the compensation packages more attractive. Elements of a community’s culture such as recreational and leisure activities, natural beauty, festivals, fairs, the arts scene, spiritual and religious institutions and a community’s character may make the position more attractive once highlighted. Additional factors such as the community being a good place to raise children, an opportunity for more professional independence and the chance to offer more personable patient care are all positives that can be presented to interested candidates.

Conclusion

For rural healthcare organizations facing recruiting and retention challenges, employing some of the approaches and strategies outlined in this blog will help attract vital clinical talent. Improved talent acquisition, in turn, will enhance the quality of care rural healthcare organizations provide to their communities.

PeopleScout Australia Jobs Report Analysis – March 2018

The Australia Bureau of Statistics released its March Labour Force Key Statistics showing slower job growth compared to the past year.

The Numbers

4,900: The Australian economy added 4,900 jobs in March.
5.5%: The Australian unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5 per cent.
65.5%: Labour force participation decreased 0.1 per cent to 65.5 per cent.
+7: According to the NAB, the business confidence index fell two points to +7 index points.

Upside

The 4,900 jobs added to the Australian economy in March brings employment growth over the past year to 367,100, as reported by Business Insider. Employment remains at a record high 12.48 million. The largest increase in employment was in Victoria, followed by Tasmania and Western Australia. Since March 2017, full-time employment has increased by 226,900 persons, and part-time employment has increased by 140,200 persons.


Additionally, the unemployment rate initially reported as 5.6 percent in February was adjusted down to 5.5 per cent. That rate held steady in March. According to Marketwatch, the country is still not yet at full employment.

Downside

The 4,900 jobs created in March fell well below economists’ expectations. This is a sign that the strong run of monthly job increases could be slowing down. Full-time employment actually decreased by nearly 20,000 in March, but an increase of nearly 25,000 jobs created the net increase in employment. There was also a small decrease in the labour participation rate.


The business confidence rate also dropped two points in March to +7. This is still slightly higher than the historical average, but it has fallen four points in just two months.

Unknown

The significant slowing of job creation in March may mark the end of a period of strong sustained job growth. Decelerated job growth has implications for the broader Australian economy, though economists still debate what could happen. While there is still room to grow in Australia’s economy, some economists believe the growth could slow.


Tom Kennedy of JP Morgan notes, “Much of the positivity RBA officials have had on the labour market of late has come from the fact that employment growth boomed last year, with raw job creation making it easy to paper over the various headwinds facing the consumer, such as benign wages growth and high levels of household indebtedness.


However, we had previously flagged the surge in employment growth and participation as being correlated phenomena. While early days it appears this view is broadly tracking, and we retain our forecast for participation to stabilise and employment growth to moderate in 2018.”